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Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Brinker's Bear Market Bottoming Process

[Friday, February 20, Brinker commentary added below.]

[Please notice the new "News and Links" section about halfway down the right column. I will be adding interesting items and useful links there regularly.]

Bob Brinker has said that the market was bottoming several times over the past year -- the first time was in March, 2008. He has talked about these bottoms on Moneytalk -- even saying that he was "buying" in the low-1300's.

At the beginning of February, he said he viewed the 750 to 850 range as the bottom area for "the entire bear market." He thinks the November low will hold. Will it? Time will tell, but so far, the market is less than impressed with Obama's spending package.

Indeed, there is talk of nationalizing the banks along the same lines as Sweden -- a socialist nation. Even a few months ago, who would have thought this could be discussed as a viable option in our free, capitalist country?

In the following comments, poster "BFree" says that Brinker has no substance -- only "hope," and if he was honest would "end the game.":

"For the most part I agree with Math who is on record as saying that he believed Bob Brinker was incompetent rather than dishonest.

When it comes to some conspiracy of Brinker's to lead investors down into these dire straights while shouting quite often during the fall that he had found an excellent buying opportunity, count me out. Brinker has no idea what the market will do and never has had. It was simply BS. I am glad that some former supporters recognize the incompetence, even though it took them an awfully awfully long time when all the evidence was there as to the scheme.

So while agreeing that Brinker was incompetent and not wanting to take his subscribers down for some sinster bizzare reason, his lack of honesty I believe has caused many extra pain.

He ridiculed those investment advisors who told their subscribers to get out last spring. He called them "False Prophets" and "Cassandras" when the market was around 1400. He said in what has to be the most stupid claim ever, "The only thing holding the market back from new all time highs are oil prices and nobody can predict the price of oil".

Brinker predicted new highs last year and claimed time after time he had found the bottom.

I've never considered Brinker a fool. A very good BSer and self promoter. Therefore I am certain that he knows that throughout this market he has not had a single clue as to what was going to happen. By rather dishonestly not mentioning previous "bottoms" and acting as though he is totally capable of guiding the idiots that still trust him is somewhat less than candid.

Everyone with a brain knows that Brinker has been wrong; badly wrong, disastrously wrong. Everyone with a brain knows that Brinker in his latest pontification that the "low for the entire bear market has been set" in his last gifthorse attempt, knows there is no substance, just hope.

Think about what has transpired since Brinker claims he has spotted the bottom (for I forget now? how many times??). The stimulus package, the Tarp, the bailout dejour. Who in their right mind thinks they can predict the outcome of these events-the administration (as well as the last) have asked for billions of $ claiming one thing they will do for it; only to change and do something entirely different.

Brinker's blather as though he knows what the market holds; is like someone during the superbowl claiming at half time, Team A which was leading by 4 touchdowns had scored their last and that team B would win. How would he know that? There was zero way of knowing that. Same goes for Bob Brinker's latest who now I agree with Math is incompetent.

If he were honest about it though now, it would be the end of the game; wouldn't it?



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