Search Bob Brinker Blogs

Sunday, November 30, 2008

What Brinker Never Would Allow on Moneytalk: Flanagan Did Allow

Bob Brinker, who came from the canyons of Wall Street, was a former banker, and has been a "market-timer" on the national airwaves for over 20 years, missed the warning signs of a financial tsunami and remained invested throughout a 50% bear market that began in January -- but today was the first time a caller has had an opportunity to actually talk about it on the air.

Lynne from Santa Clara called Moneytalk about halfway into the third hour. She spoke eloquently about having read two outstanding articles that sounded the alarm of impending trouble. One was an op-ed piece written by George Mullen for the San Diego Union in 2005, titled the Coming Financial Tsunami. The other was a sequel written by George Mullen's father, Tom Mullen, in 2006. I could not find a link to the sequel. (Note: In the June, 2007 Marketimer, Brinker wrote that the "secular bear market megatrend" had ended in June, 2006.)

Lynne then said this:

“I know Bob missed the timing – the exit……I checked Mr. Mullen’s story to what Bob Brinker was saying. I kind of (unintelligible) Bob Brinker, but I know he missed the bucket on this one by kind of a wide mile. I know he’s done a mea culpa and said that he’s not infallible that we thought he was, like the Maestro, Mr. Greenspan. But I do kind of wonder, with all due respect – I’m not a disrespectful type at all…..and certainly not on the air. But I have wondered how Bob managed to not connect the dots on the exit when he had worked on Wall Street and banks and you know, when you have a housing, who backs housing… (Flanagan begins talking over the caller, telling her he had to interrupt -- Bob can speak for himself...)….Oh, yes, definitely, definitely. I guess all of us who are staunch listeners and respect much of his advice, and much of it is very, very good, wondered how he missed the exit there through, you know, a year-long 6000 point sell-off. But anyway, I’ll let it go there, Mr. Flanagan. Top of the Sunday evening to you, sir."

Lynne was bending over backwards to be respectful, even to the point of saying that Brinker had given a "mea culpa." All Brinker has ever said that some might interpret as a mea culpa, is that he could not be expected to forecast a "global meltdown." I've covered what Brinker has said about "his work" not warning him of the imminent arrival of what Flanagan said was the "worst financial period of his lifetime." It's all available in previous Moneytalk Summaries.

June 4, 2008, (S&P 1400.38) Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "The market registered its initial correction low in mid-January, and completed a successful test of the bottom area in mid-March........we expect the market to trade with an upward bias until new record highs are achieved above the S&P 500 Index closing highs of 1565.15 registered last October. Our S&P 500 Index price target remains in the 1600 range either late this year or in 2009."

Almost immediately after Brinker said the lows were in, and he predicted new highs, the stock market dropped into bear market territory. Brinker first blamed the market drop on the rise in the price of oil -- calling it a "wild card" and saying it had an "inverse correlation" to the stock market. When that theory failed he gave it up and never mentioned it again. It's obvious that Brinker did not have a clue that financials were the reason for the market problems, in spite of the fact that it had been pointed out to him.

Top Rated Newsletter

Timer Digest Features
Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter
on its Cover

Cick to read the full page article!