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Wednesday, November 19, 2008

S&P 500 Index Below Brinker's March, 2003 Buy Signal

Bob Brinker made a good call on March 11, 2003. He had 65% Model Portfolio cash reserves that he had raised in 2000. He returned it to the market at S&P 807 as this shows:

Bob Brinker's April, 2003, Marketimer, Page One; Paragraph One: "On March 11, the Marketimer stock market timing model returned to bullish territory for the first time since January of Year 2000. In our view, on March 11 (......S&P 500 Index 807), the market reached the vicinity of a major cyclical bear market bottom.........."

The S&P 500 Index closed at 806.58 today!

Between March 2003 and October 2007, the S&P 500 Index went up 98% and topped out at 1576. Today, November 19, 2008, The S&P closed below Brinker's March 2003 buy signal today -- after a 50% bear market decline this year.

Brinker will not be able to issue a buy signal this time because he has absolutely no cash reserves -- he never issued any sell signals all the way down. Just the opposite, he has called several bottoms and recommended several new buy levels for "new money," including mid-1400's, low to mid 1300's, and 1200's. At the same time, he continuously recommended dollar-cost-averaging new equity money.

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If Brinker tries to scam Moneytalk listeners into believing that he is issuing another buy signal, if and when he decides to call another market bottom, it will be a huge SHARK attack. He got away with that sort of deception once before with the QQQQ-trades. Let's hope he doesn't try it again. Let's hope he does the right thing.

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While the market is dropping like a rock and CNBC is all abuzz nearby, Lama is not a bit worried. 8-)
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