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Wednesday, November 19, 2008

S&P 500 Index Below Brinker's March, 2003 Buy Signal

Bob Brinker made a good call on March 11, 2003. He had 65% Model Portfolio cash reserves that he had raised in 2000. He returned it to the market at S&P 807 as this shows:

Bob Brinker's April, 2003, Marketimer, Page One; Paragraph One: "On March 11, the Marketimer stock market timing model returned to bullish territory for the first time since January of Year 2000. In our view, on March 11 (......S&P 500 Index 807), the market reached the vicinity of a major cyclical bear market bottom.........."

The S&P 500 Index closed at 806.58 today!

Between March 2003 and October 2007, the S&P 500 Index went up 98% and topped out at 1576. Today, November 19, 2008, The S&P closed below Brinker's March 2003 buy signal today -- after a 50% bear market decline this year.

Brinker will not be able to issue a buy signal this time because he has absolutely no cash reserves -- he never issued any sell signals all the way down. Just the opposite, he has called several bottoms and recommended several new buy levels for "new money," including mid-1400's, low to mid 1300's, and 1200's. At the same time, he continuously recommended dollar-cost-averaging new equity money.

If Brinker tries to scam Moneytalk listeners into believing that he is issuing another buy signal, if and when he decides to call another market bottom, it will be a huge SHARK attack. He got away with that sort of deception once before with the QQQQ-trades. Let's hope he doesn't try it again. Let's hope he does the right thing.

While the market is dropping like a rock and CNBC is all abuzz nearby, Lama is not a bit worried. 8-)

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