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Saturday, September 13, 2008

Bob Brinker's Website Spin

Bob Brinker's website shows a flashing banner that gives performance numbers for his model portfolios as of December 31, 2007. Be aware that those numbers do not include what has happened to the stock market in 2008!

Those same model portfolios have remained fully invested all the way down from the October 2007 stock market highs through the 20%+ decline in 2008.

Bob Brinker's website also says that Portfolio One increased 1,167% since 1-1-88 and now has a dollar value of: $253,399. That is not the low for this year. The Portfolio dropped to $249,993 at the end of July. This same portfolio had a dollar value of $302,561 last October at the stock market all-time-high.

-$249,993 = $52,568 bear market decline in nine months.

No wonder Brinker has never admitted to missing this bear market.

Brinker's model portfolios have not made it into Hulbert's Financial Digest's Top-5 Performers (in any category) over the past 5-year time-period for a very long time now.

Why does all this matter? Because Brinker promotes his market-timing skills, it is his claim to fame. He sure isn't a stock picker or even a mutual fund picker -- as Hulbert says, his mutual fund selections generally lag the market. Perhaps that is why half of his portfolios are invested in the Total Stock Market Index.

Blogger jeffchristie said...

Bob Brinker is using the end of 2007 numbers at his website to make himself look good. It does not show the effects of this current bear market. As of 31 Aug 2005 P1 was $213,673 now on 31 Aug 2008 it is $253,399. That gives him a 3 year return of 18.5% or about half of the 35% number he is advertising.

What he is saying is true but not up to date. The 18.5% figure for the last 3 years shows the effect of Brinker failing to call this bear market. These up to date returns tend to explain why Bob Brinker is no longer in the top 5 in any Hulbert ratings. I can see why they say past performance is not an indication of future results.

September 13, 2008 6:40 AM

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