January 19, 2008, Moneytalk, Bob Brinker said that the stock market is going through a “rocky period in here,” and has declined about 15% on the S&P Index, which is “more than I expected.” He also said it was “trading on fear here,” but in his opinion there was “…no Armageddon scenario……. I think there’s lots of fog out there right now. I think there’s very low visibility out there right now, and I think that low visibility has been caused by all of the things we’ve been seeing over the past several weeks—especially the last week……but it has not been my view that we would be looking to run for the hills and expecting the stock market to go down 50%.”
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Bob Brinker has been 100% invested since March 2003. He has been 100% bullish -- short-term, intermediate-term and long-term --since he announced the (June 2006) ending of a so-called "secular bear megatrend" in June 2007.
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However, for those who happen to have new money to invest in the market, Brinker usually issues a level at which he considers the market “attractive for purchase.” That level was raised from “1380 or lower” to the “mid-1400’s range" in August 2007.
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About the middle of January 2008, Brinker announced that he no longer considered “mid-1400’s” an attractive level to sink new money into the market. At the same time, he indicated that he was looking for a bottom to this 15% correction that he had not expected to happen. (January 22, 2008, S&P 1310)
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As of February 10, 2008, Brinker claimed that the bottom is in, and he considered the “low-1300’s” in the S&P 500 Index “attractive for purchase.” (February 8, 2008, S&P 1331)
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Last week (February 16-17) on Moneytalk, Brinker said that it had been "......a good week for the stock market.” (S&P 500 was at the 1350 level – a gain of 1.4%; Dow gained 1.36%)
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So even though Brinker has recommended being 100% invested throughout this intermediate-term correction which he admits he didn't expect, he has now re-grouped, moved his market-timing goal-posts and is "probably" hoping the market goes up from here. That 20% bear that he said "was not on the radar" is growling just around the corner. I think we all hope he doesn't appear and that Brinker is correct on that point. 8^)
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If anyone happens to make it past the Moneytalk call-screeners to ask Brinker about this correction, he will most likely ignore the question and simply hearken back to his March 2003 buy signal. It’s déjà vu all over again. Wash, rinse, wash, rinse.
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