STOCK MARKET:
Brinker reported that the financial markets are doing very well -- that the S&P 500 Index is currently just a hair away from its 2011 high, and the Dow is now at a new high for 2011.
Brinker said: "You've seen a tremendous come-back in the market over the past 25 months. .....It's rather remarkable. If you take the all-time closing high in the S&P 500 of 1565 which of course was back in 2007.....and then you take the current level of 1337....you will find in terms of the index right now, the S&P 500 Index is 14 1/2% below its all-time-high. However, you have earned 3 1/2 years of dividends which is 7%, so that cuts that in half. On a total return basis......the S&P is only 7% under its all-time-high."
Honey EC: When the S&P hit its all-time-high in October, 2007, Brinker was projecting it would reach mid-1600's. He was also repeatedly calling mid-1400's a "gift-horse buying opportunity." So for those who actually follow his advice, it must feel good to finally be just 7% under what you were almost four years ago.
[Jim's comments added in edit.]
Jim said...S&P DOWNGRADES US DEBT: Brinker reported that just a few hours after last week's broadcast, the S&P Rating Agency downgraded the credit rating of the United States of America. They said that there is a "....1 in 3 likelihood that we could lower our long-term rating on the US within two years." They have reduced their outlook on US debt from stable to negative. Brinker pointed out that this was no surprise to anyone who listens to Moneytalk because he has been talking about the disgraceful mismanagement of the deficit in Washington.
My take on this statement is that it is just another example of how Bob Brinker trys to save face when being wrong.When Brinker first realized he got himself and his subscribers caught in a bear market he tried to say it was a bear market nobody could have predicted. Now he seems to be suggesting that the bear market was no big deal because eveyone is within 7% of where they were before. What's a bit of a contradiction is that while Brinker claims to be a marketimer, anytime someone starts saying bear markets cannot be predicted and points out how the market always recovers from heavy losses is someone who fits the perfect description of a " buy and holder". [Originally posted here: link]
DEFICIT GROWING...It will grow $1.6 Trillion through the 30th of September. Brinker said: "Obviously they are going to have to restructure Medicare and reduce benefits. The are going to have to make changes to Social Security. They may also have to make changes to Medicaid. It is a colossal situation." And S&P is reacting to that as they should after the mess they made of the sub-prime. They and Moodys and others, the bogus triple-A ratings that they gave out on the sub-prime junk...."
BOND MARKET, ECONOMIC SLOWING AND INFLATION....Brinker said: "Bond market is starting to act a little better and that's of course because people are wondering whether there will be some austerity measures in the US. Any austerity measures coming out of Washington would slow down economic growth. Less money in circulation in terms of fiscal stimulus.....No question that would have a restraining impact on the US economy. Investors are starting to look at that and they know that if the Federal Government starts to pull back, and there's a lot of pressure on them now with this S&P downgrade....and that's a good thing.
Well if we have any kind of austerity steps in the budget that reduces the growth rate of the economy, it also reduces inflationary pressures. So bond investors are liking what they see when it comes to the subject of the possibility of reducing fiscal stimulus and the possibility of moving away from the risk of inflating the economy. So all of this is going to be something that investors will focus on."
WHERE TO FIND SAFETY IF THE GOVERNMENT DEFAULTS.....Caller Shawn asked if the United States government should default on its debt, would there be any safe place to invest. Brinker told her that was a tough question but the good news is that we don't have to answer that question right now because we aren't in that situation, and not even close to it at this point. Although, on a longer term basis, it is something that people will be thinking about because up until now the US has been the ultimate safe haven -- the global reserve currency.
Brinker told Shawn: "One can hope that they'll get their act together in Washington in such a way that we won't have to go down that road. But I think that it's important for people to recognize that the irresponsibility of the Washington politicians is at a level which flashes a lot of caution signs."
CHANGING MEDICARE.....Caller Tom in Santa Rosa asked Brinker what he would do to reform Medicare and Social Security. Brinker explained that he would gradually push out the retirement age, but make no changes for those in, or near to, retirement. Brinker talked at length about an New York Times article by David Leonhardt that made the claim that someone in their late 50's would collect triple what they paid in.
Honey EC: Throughout the program Brinker talked about "56 year olds" getting Medicare. I did some research and found that the minimum age for collecting Medicare is 65 unless a person is on Social Security Disability for two years. So it looks to me like Brinker and the NY Times author are both blowing smoke. Here's the link to the article: "A Medicare Plan That Exempts Too Many")
IS IT TIME TO SELL STOCKS? Caller George said he had read an article in Business Week that suggested that the S&P price-earnings ratio was getting higher than historic levels, and that the stock market was entering bubble territory. He asked Brinker if he should move out of the stock market.
Brinker told George: "No. As a matter of fact, I draw a completely different conclusion than the article you read. Based on the work that I do, using 2011 operating earning estimates that I have a high level of confidence in at this point, after all it's already the month of April......I would say the S&P 500 is trading below its historic average multiple.....I use estimates for 2011....and I'm comfortable using those estimates."
WOULD IT HELP TO NATIONALIZE OIL? Bert asked Brinker about nationalizing the oil industry. Brinker explained that would make no difference because we are "beggar" buyers and would still use over 10 million barrels a day.
OIL NONSENSE COMING OUT OF THE OVAL OFFICE....Brinker said: "By the way, I saw some nonsense coming out of Washington this week, seemed to come out of the White House in this case, seemed to come out of the Oval Office actually. It seemed to be blaming the price of oil on oil traders. I ask you not to fall for this nonsense. It's political pap. And let's face it, the price of oil is a function of supply, demand and exogenous factors.
What are exogenous factors that can effect the price of oil? Certainly unrest in the oil-rich Middle-East..... How about the fact we have pretty much lost a million and half of supply out of Libya which remains at war between Quddafi and the Libyan resistance.....We have what amounts to a wholesale slaughter in Syria that's gone on in the past 48 hours.....I hate to see this kind of nonsense coming out of the White House because it shows desperation and you always hate to see that. Traders in the oil pits do not control the events in any of these countries.....So to blame the price of oil on oil traders is propaganda in this case coming from the good old USA..... Don't fall for it.....It's pre-election year smoke and mirrors....It's political trickery to cover up the fact that these same politicians have been unable to present you with what you deserve which is a viable energy policy......
Do you think that huge government subsidies for wind and solar are a viable energy policy? Not if you look at statistics. Let's bring it up to right now. You know how much wind and solar power is as a percent of United States power - 1.4%. What about the other 98.6%? And wind and solar are subsidized.....Solar is highly questionable as to whether it's even, global footprint-wise, a good policy. And I won't even go into the absurd support for the ethanol policies.....So don't fall for this trickery and this nonsense coming out of Washington. The reality is, the guys and gals in the oil-trading pits are not the reason oil is $112 a barrel. Nor are they the reason that the NY Times pictures $5 a gallon regular gasoline this week. I ask you not to fall for it."
Honey EC: I paid $4.23 for gasoline today near Santa Cruz. OUCH! I got no "CHANGE."
Caller Terry said he would be retiring in a couple of years and was in the Marketimer portfolio one, and that he also subscribed to the Fixed Income Advisor. Brinker recommended the Marketimer balanced portfolio.
Terry asked: "What about the funds in the Fixed Income Advisor? Would I be interested in any of those?
Brinker replied: "Well I think that uhhhhh....there are various approaches you can take. That is an income investment letter, and so that is a letter that focus completely, almost completely I should say, there's a little bit of convertible stuff in there, but for the most part, that's an income newsletter. I would say that, from my point of view, I'll go with what I said earlier, I think the balanced portfolio, model III on page 8 of the investment letter. I think that that is a portfolio that is certainly worth taking a good look at in terms developing a balance between the equity side and the fixed income side. That would be my thought on that. 1-800-934-2221......"
Honey EC: Deception is never funny, but I laughed out loud at Brinker's response to Terry's question about the Fixed Income Advisor. I don't blame Brinker for stammering. He had a choice, he could have told Terry to check with his son, the other Bob Brinker (a computer technician) and his daughter-in-law Lisa (a linguist), who edit and publish that newsletter -- or he could have done what he did....
Brinker's guest speaker was William D. Cohan.
You can take it with you! Moneytalk on demand, with Bob Brinker, is available for audio/podcasting FREE at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. The program is archived in the 1-4pm time-slots. I download and save all three hours, including the third hour guest-speaker, so that I can refer back to them in the future. KGO Radio MP3 Sunday Archives
| The National Debt: |
Steve T took this great action shot:
50 comments:
"Honey EC: Throughout the program Brinker talked about "56 year olds" getting Medicare. I did some research and found that the minimum age for collecting Medicare is 65..."
What the NY Times article and Brinker are talking about are PROPOSED [Ryan] changes to Medicare.
The changes would not affect anybody PRESENTLY 55 years old or older...you get the OLD Medicare.
If you are PRESENTLY YOUNGER than 55...you would be covered under the NEW Medicare.
But so far the minimum age for ANYBODY to start to receive Medicare remains at 65.
Medicare is presently a GIGANTIC WELFARE SCHEME...
"...a basic misunderstanding of the budget — namely, that older people have already paid for their Medicare benefits.
They haven’t. For most Americans, Medicare resembles a giant welfare program. They receive far more in government benefits than they ever pay in taxes and premiums. The gap for a typical household runs to several hundreds of thousands of dollars.
The Ryan plan would let anyone who turns 65 before 2022 continue to be part of this hugely popular welfare program."
OIL NONSENSE COMING OUT OF THE OVAL OFFICE....Brinker said: "By the way, I saw some nonsense coming out of Washington this week, seemed to come out of the White House in this case, seemed to come out of the Oval Office actually. It seemed to be blaming the price of oil on oil traders. I ask you not to fall for this nonsense. It's political pap. And let's face it, the price of oil is a function of supply, demand and exogenous factors.
....I hate to see this kind of nonsense coming out of the White House because it shows desperation and you always hate to see that. ...It's political trickery to cover up the fact that these same politicians have been unable to present you with what you deserve which is a viable energy policy......
---------------
President Obama (Bob, I mentioned his name and nothing has happened to me) does have an energy policy. I agree that it may not be viable. His policy is to get off of oil and on to "Green energy". High gasoline prices are part of the strategy. In a recent event Mr. Obama said:
"So, like I said, if you’re getting eight miles a gallon you may want to think about a trade-in. You can get a great deal. I promise you, GM or Ford or Chrysler, they’re going to be happy to give you a deal on something that gets you better gas mileage."
Ideally he wants us driving small electric cars.
Regarding the price of a barrel of oil: if traders and speculators are responsible for the increase in price, who is responsible when the price drops? Someone should ask the president that question the next time he brings up the topic.
-- Frankj
"So, like I said, if you’re getting eight miles a gallon you may want to think about a trade-in. You can get a great deal."
I heard this idiotic statement Obama made and thought, here is a guy who insults us by implying that a car dealer is going to give someone a "good deal" when trading in a gas guzzler while gas prices are rising. Please.
The last comment was from Frankj -- a guy who HAS dickered with car dealers and can report that no matter WHAT you have for a trade-in, they tell you that there is little demand for it!
-- Frankj
Honeybee wrote:
"the S&P 500 Index is 14 1/2% below its all-time-high. However, you have earned 3 1/2 years of dividends which is 7%, so that cuts that in half. On a total return basis......the S&P is only 7% under its all-time-high."
Honey EC: When the S&P hit its all-time-high in October, 2007, Brinker was projecting it would reach mid-1600's. He was also repeatedly calling mid-1400's a "gift-horse buying opportunity." So for those who actually follow his advice, it must feel good to finally be just 7% under what you were almost four years ago. "
You should send this summary to Leno and Letterman. That is so subtle and funny if not so sad it was true ... they might hire you!
S&P500 gift horse in the mid 1400s, QQQ in the mid 80s... TEFQX with a full page in his marketimer at $14
I noticed UTEK is trading in the $30s today. I thought about selling it to buy gold when Gold was $950 and UTEK was $14 to lock in the gains I got from buying under $10. I was bullish on both and know I'm better with tech stocks than metals.... Glad I kept UTEK.
I recall Brinker recommending UTEK on National TV in the 1990s at about $28. He eventually told his readers to sell it at $27 when he was also telling them to buy QQQ. Those who put up to half their 65% cash reserves into QQQ in the $80s a decade ago (See Bob Brinker's QQQ Advice) must be happy they too are slowly approaching break-even!
Do you see a pattern here?
TEFQX... still waiting for a "future recovery"
QQQ... still waiting for a "future recovery"
S&P500 still waiting for a "future recovery"
UTEK sold for a loss at $27 and the stock is higher now at $32+
Maybe that is why he's still working doing late night guest appearances where people like you and SteveT don't call in and put him on the hot seat?
Just so I don't get accused of "bashing" here is a transcript of Brinker's recommendation for UTEK at $30 on TV.
Anyone remember what happened to his other recommendation for Stanford Telecom (STII) at $23 where he said to buy more if it fell to $20?
Most tech stocks soared between that 1997 interview and 2000.... UTEK fell to $16 and I forget what STII did.
Brinker said: "You've seen a tremendous come-back in the market over the past 25 months. .....It's rather remarkable. If you take the all-time closing high in the S&P 500 of 1565 which of course was back in 2007.....and then you take the current level of 1337....you will find in terms of the index right now, the S&P 500 Index is 14 1/2% below its all-time-high. However, you have earned 3 1/2 years of dividends which is 7%, so that cuts that in half. On a total return basis......the S&P is only
7% under its all-time-high."
My take on this statement is that it is just another example of how Bob Brinker trys to save face when being wrong.When Brinker first realized he got himself and his subscribers caught in a bear market he tried to say it was a bear market nobody could have predicted. Now he seems to be suggesting that the bear market was no big deal because eveyone is within 7% of where they were before. What's a bit of a contradiction is that while Brinker claims to be a marketimer, anytime someone starts saying bear markets cannot be predicted and points out how the market always recovers from heavy losses is someone who fits the perfect description of a " buy and holder".
Sunday Brinker talked about a federal investigation into price manipulation of oil. I wonder if he remembered that the same thing was done back in May of 2008. Here is what he said back then.
From the Beehive on 31 May 2008
OIL MARKET MANIPULATION INVESTIGATION.... Brinker said: “Incidentally, an investigation has started of oil trading by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. And they’re looking for evidence of purposeful manipulation of oil markets………The investigation was just announced within the last 48 hours. And they are going to try to prove that traders were trying to illegally move the oil markets with their activity. Now the acid test for this is that the sole intent was to try to move the price of oil, and that’s what they are going to have to prove. This is all about speculative trading – artificially pushing up oil prices.”
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OIL PRICES AROUND THE WORLD.... Brinker said: “Now keep in mind oil is an international commodity. And although you could try to manipulate prices in the United States……..that has not been proved yet. But hypothetically, if you were to try to do so, you might still have a big problem, and that big problem would be, well what about the financial capitols around the world outside the United States. How do you control those? You see, this is the problem with trying to control an international commodity. The fact is, even if you do have an impact in the United States, what about the rest of the world…………”
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Jim said:
"My take on this statement is that it is just another example of how Bob Brinker trys to save face when being wrong.When Brinker first realized he got himself and his subscribers caught in a bear market he tried to say it was a bear market nobody could have predicted."
Jim I can't see how he could get away with saying "it was a bear market nobody could have predicted". He spent a great deal of time bashing the people who were predicting it on 31 May 2008. Here is what he said:
STOCK MARKET BEARS.... Brinker said: “So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing and yet these people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find themselves out of a rising market since March. To find themselves looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite.
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We’ve had the market rising since mid-March. It’s rather significant when you stop to think about it. If you go back to mid-March and you take a look at the S&P 500 Index since mid-March, right now you have a total return, including cash dividends of about 10 1/2%.....................So it’s fair for you to say to the Cassandras, where is that recession, where are those millions of lost jobs, where are the two quarters of negative real GDP growth? Where’s the bear market? …………The answer is, they blew it! That is the answer, they blew it. They got caught up in their own negativity and they pronounced that it was all over, it was going to spiral downward and there was no end in sight – and they got it completely backwards. Truly amazing to see, and sad to see the people that are harmed by such unjustified negativity.”
Here is David Korn's commentary on call yesterday about the Fixed Income Advisor:
David Korn wrote:
MODEL PORTFOLIO QUESTION
"Caller: This caller is going to be retiring in a couple of years. He was in Bob's Model Portfolio I and also subscribed to Bob¹s Fixed income Advisor. Bob suggested that he look at the Marketimer Balanced Portfolio (Portfolio III). The caller then asked about the funds in the Fixed Income Advisor. Bob seemed a little caught of guard by the question and sort of fumbled around a bit before saying that is an income investment letter and so that letter focuses for the most part on income. Bob said he thinks his Model Portfolio III is worth taking a look at in terms of developing a balance between the equity side and the fixed income side.
(KORN) EC: For the Brinker historian such as myself, a moment like that provides some entertainment because the "Fixed Income Advisor" is a newsletter that Bob Brinker publishes. Only it is not Bob Brinker Sr., but Bob Brinker Junior who publishes it, along with his sister as last I recall. And Bob has a fixed income only portfolio in his newsletter so that extent father and son are competing, at least insofar as the fixed income recommendations are concerned. I happened to be very biased on this issue and like The Retirement Advisor if you are looking for a conservative investment portfolio, whether it be all fixed income holdings, or a balanced approach.
Of course, that is a shameless plug for myself since I publish that other newsletter, but hey, I don't plug myself too much I don't think. Drop me a line if you are interested and I'll send you a complimentary copy just for putting up with my self-promotion."
Honey here: I have to kindly disagree with David that Brinker considers his son's newsletter "competition." I think his son's career in the financial advice world is the sole reason that Brinker continues to do Moneytalk and keep the family name out there.
I think Brinker is well aware that listeners are reaching a wrong conclusion about the Fixed Income Advisor. The man is slick but he's not stupid.
I'll go one step further and say in my opinion, Bob Brinker junior stopped differentiating himself from his father on the internet as a deliberate part of the "business plan."
I also disagree with David that Lisa is Jr's sister. I am fairly sure that it is his wife.
If you're interested in this type of advice, compare the two newsletters.
November 2010 free issue Brinker's Fixed Income Advisor
October 2010 free issue Korn and Lindstrom's Retirement Advisor
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Just an FYI for any "auditors" here, I don't make a plugged nickel from either Bob Brinker or Korn/Lindstrom's newsletters.
Matter of fact, I tried to subscribe to Brinker's fixed-income letter and was refused. I paid with credit card and my money was refused. What are they afraid of? The truth getting out?
And yes, the Brinker's know my real name as well as I do....
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Ms Honey says"I paid with credit card and my money was refused. "
I sure hope that you canceled that credit card! Also keep an eye on your phone bill and bank account. (((ROAR)))
I never knew that Jr had a job. I read at another site that he didn't work since being a webmaster of a failed site.
David Korn said:
"Of course, that is a shameless plug for myself since I publish that other newsletter, but hey, I don't plug myself too much I don't think. Drop me a line if you are interested and I'll send you a complimentary copy just for putting up with my self-promotion."
But I have seen Kirk Lindstrom say that is HIS newsletter.
AED
AED,
Perhaps you aren't aware that Kirk and David are partners. Since you asked so nicely, here is the complete rundown from their newsletter site:
David M. Korn:
David M. Korn is the creator of the web site, BeginInvesting.com and the editor of an on-line financial newsletter that has subscribers all over the world. David's service has been quoted in financial publications such as CBSMarketwatch.com and TheStreet.com. David Korn has a law degree from Tulane Law School and has been awarded the "AV" rating by the Martindale-Hubbell Law Directory, which is the highest possible rating for legal ability and ethical standards for lawyers.
Kirk Lindstrom :
Kirk Lindstrom has an engineering degree from the University of California, Berkeley. Following 20 years of research and development as a scientist and engineer at Hewlett Packard, Kirk turned his attention to investments. Since September 1998, Kirk has edited "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" where through December 31, 2009 his "explore" portfolio grew over 300% while the S&P500 only gained 31%. After nine years of success, Kirk was featured on the front page of the Los Altos Town Crier business section. For over a decade, Kirk edited Investment.suite101.com , one of the first investment web sites designed to have articles and answer questions to help others. Kirk took-off on his own in 2007 to write KirkLindstrom.com/ , kirklindstrom.blogspot.com/ and ForBestAdvice.com/. Kirk has written about and helped individuals learn to manage their investments since the early 1990's.
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This is a test of the Emergency Brinker System. Had this been an actual emergency you would have been instructed to:
Ignore runious advice such as buying the NASDAQ 100 as part of a counter-trend rally in 2000, and four years ago from jumping into the stock market just before the Great Recession
Remember that Mr B's timing model, like his disco music, has come and gone
Consider substituting Sunday radio with a relaxing use of time like calligraphy, flower arrangement, or dogwalking with the canine droppings collected with discarded Marketimers
Stay tuned to this station for further updates. This concludes this test of the Emergency Brinker System.
JIM ROGERS: Short Treasuries And Buy Commodities, Especially Silver
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Al said: "What the NY Times article and Brinker are talking about are PROPOSED [Ryan] changes to Medicare."
I think the person that you need to tell that to is Bob Brinker. He said he was quoting statistics that the article presented.
He never stated that it was a "proposed" new Medicare. Several times during the program he talked about how much these younger people were costing Medicare.
Nope Al, Brinker does not know that the minimum age to get Medicare is 65 -- unless one has been on Social Security Disability for 2 years.
Now if you want to talk about a "GIGANTIC WELFARE SCHEME," tell us how much money Medicaid recipients pay into the system before start collecting.
.
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Jeffchristie said: (Obama said) "So, like I said, if you’re getting eight miles a gallon you may want to think about a trade-in. You can get a great deal. I promise you, GM or Ford or Chrysler, they’re going to be happy to give you a deal on something that gets you better gas mileage."
Ideally he wants us driving small electric cars."
Jeff,
This is similar to Jimmy Carter telling Americans to put on sweaters. However, buying a new car is a much more expensive solution to high gasoline prices.
Maybe hope is all we will have left after Obama gets through with the change.
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FrankJ asked: "Regarding the price of a barrel of oil: if traders and speculators are responsible for the increase in price, who is responsible when the price drops?"
I know, I know, George Bush. LOL!!!
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FrankJ said: "I heard this idiotic statement Obama made and thought, here is a guy who insults us by implying that a car dealer is going to give someone a "good deal" when trading in a gas guzzler while gas prices are rising. Please."
Outstanding point, Frank. I would say that trading in a gas-guzzler while gasoline is $4-$5 a gallon would be similar trying to sell your old Treasuries after interest rates have gone up. Not likely to get a "good deal."
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Kirk said: "You should send this summary to Leno and Letterman. That is so subtle and funny if not so sad it was true ... they might hire you!
LOL! Thank you Kirk.... And thank you for a great post that contains so MUCH information.
Yes, there is definitely a pattern. Actually, everything Bob Brinker does follows a pattern. Most of them are totally predictable. The only times that he has ever surprised me is when he has pulled "shenanigans" that even I would not have expected.
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Jim,
Thanks for your comments. I have added your comments in edit to the Summary....
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Jeffchristie said: "Jim I can't see how he could get away with saying "it was a bear market nobody could have predicted". He spent a great deal of time bashing the people who were predicting it on 31 May 2008."
Jeff,
LOL! Good point! If NOONE was predicting the bear market, who in the world was Brinker bashing and calling "Cassandras"?
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Mr Pig, showing great concern for my well-being said: "I sure hope that you canceled that credit card! Also keep an eye on your phone bill and bank account. (((ROAR)))"
LOL! You have a good memory. It was several years ago when I first started the original Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz on Suite 101 that I was told (on another message board) to be careful what I said about the Brinker's or else watch my phone bills and bank accounts -- or some such sleazy threat.
We never did find out the real identity of the person who issued that "warning" to me.
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Honeybee said...
"...I think the person that you need to tell that to is Bob Brinker. He said he was quoting statistics that the article presented.
He never stated that it was a "proposed" new Medicare. Several times during the program he talked about how much these younger people were costing Medicare.
Nope Al, Brinker does not know that the minimum age to get Medicare is 65 -- "
I don't thing so Honeybee. Both the NYT article and Brinker were talking about how much 56 year olds and older will cost Medicare.
They were using that age not because a 56 year old can collect Medicare at that age, but because that is the age where people will CONTINUE to be covered by the PRESENT Medicare system.
And because the present Medicare program is nothing but a welfare scheme, people in that age group will, on average, collect TRIPLE what they paid in to Medicare.
You pointed that out in your summary:
" Brinker talked at length about an New York Times article by David Leonhardt that made the claim that someone in their late 50's would collect triple what they paid in."
I don't think eeither the NYT article or Bob Brinker ever even suggested that 56 year old people could draw Medicare benefits.
Al,
We are going to have to agree to disagree. I am not going to take the time to transcribe verbatim what Brinker said. If you want to do that and post it here along with the approximate time he said what you are claiming, then go for it.
I know what I heard and what I didn't hear -- and you are misinterpreting what I wrote.
Brinker was not talking about some possibility in the future of 56 year-olds getting Medicare. He was talking about it as an ongoing thing and saying it was not sustainable.
Now maybe you know more about what he meant to say than I do. If so, I suggest that he be more careful with his wordsmithing.
"Brinker was not talking about some possibility in the future of 56 year-olds getting Medicare. He was talking about it as an ongoing thing and saying it was not sustainable."
Oh I agree completely Honeybee and I don't mean to rehash the thing either.
But you're right, Brinker was saying that Medicare as it stands is not sustainable.
The 56 year old and older crowd are mentioned because this group will be covered under PRESENT Medicare even if they change Medicare going forward.
And this is the group who will continue to receive about TRIPLE the amount they ever contribute to Medicare.
That's why the NYT article and Brinker are saying Medicare is not sustainable in it's present form.
And I think you and I agree on that point.
Don't mean to belabor the issue.
Al,
I agree that at this point, we seem to be belaboring the issue, but can you back this statement up with a source?
You said: "The 56 year old and older crowd are mentioned because this group will be covered under PRESENT Medicare even if they change Medicare going forward."
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Oh sure, it's in the NYT article you first linked...the article we have been discussing:
"...a basic misunderstanding of the budget — namely, that older people have already paid for their Medicare benefits.
They haven’t. For most Americans, Medicare resembles a giant welfare program. They receive far more in government benefits than they ever pay in taxes and premiums. The gap for a typical household runs to several hundreds of thousands of dollars.
The Ryan plan would let anyone who turns 65 before 2022 continue to be part of this hugely popular welfare program. In fact, Mr. Ryan would scrap the common-sense attempts to slow costs in last year’s health bill, like the baby steps to base Medicare coverage decisions more on medical evidence. If you’re 55 or older, you get the same old Medicare, with its same soaring budget.
If you’re under 55, you are excluded. You will instead receive a government subsidy to buy private insurance, and the subsidy will probably not keep pace with future increases in health costs."
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/06/business/06leonhardt.html?_r=1
Al,
We have now come full circle, so let's end this and agree to disagree. The full circle is that we are back to that article which Brinker cited. As I said in my editorial comments, I think both Brinker and the article were blowing smoke. That's my opinion. You are entitled to yours.
.
Medicare is great for those who (like me) are on it. They do keep upping the monthly contribution which they take out of SS payments, but of course it's not really enough to actually cover the costs. I'd be willing to pay more for the great coverage, but most folks would not. It's hard to turn down "something for nothing".
Now for something completely different. The Dow made a bull market closing high today on good volume. It would take a miracle to make the monthly MACD turn bearish at the end of April. So it appears to me that all systems are GO!
I have been wrong before...but of course never about the market! :-)
DanG said: "I have been wrong before...but of course never about the market! :-)
I agree. :)
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There was a nice correction in silver today. It may or may not be over, but it is up quite a lot in after-hours.
Time will tell, but it looks like it may have been a nice buying opportunity.
I went shopping. :)
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When Brinker said, "Based on the work that I do, using 2011 operating earning estimates...", I had to laugh. That was his problem in 2008. He used S&P earnings estimates to calculate his predicted market level. Those estimates were way too high. S&P didn't lower them until it was too late. He hasn't learned a thing from 2008!
StoxNBondz
Stoxnbonds,
I agree....Do you remember how "comfortable" he was when the market was reaching its ALL-TIME-HIGH in October 2007? The market then dropped 57% in 2008 and the Q1 of 2009.
Here is what he wrote:
October 3, 2007 (S&P@ 1526.75) Marketimer, Bob Brinker said:
“In August and September editions of Marketimer, we rated the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness in the area of the S&P 500 Index mid-1400’s range. During August and September there were 18 buying opportunities, consisting of 15 market days on which the S&P 500 Index closed within the 1430 to 1470 range, and three market days on which the index closed slightly below that range. Although we do not believe further weakness into the mid-1400’s range must occur, we remain comfortable with rating the market attractive for purchase should any such additional weakness occur……….”
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Well, it looks like yesterday was a good day to buy AGQ, the leveraged silver ETF, if you wanted to make over 13% today.
Silver closed at: $47.00
AGQ closed at: $361.75
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Ms Honey says "Well, it looks like yesterday was a good day to buy AGQ, the leveraged silver ETF, if you wanted to make over 13% today. "
Now you tell me! :--)
Maybe you should write a newsletter on PM's. I think you really know your stuff.
I bought some SLV back in March at $35.50. I thought I would be too late to the party, since I joke with my friends that I am an expert at buying things at the top. Not so in this case. If my buy order could not stop the rally then I don't know if anything can. At the time of this post the Silver futures are up another 5%. Thank you Honey! You convinced me to buy.
Jim,
Oh my goodness! I'm so glad silver went up. I sure wouldn't want to lose any good friends because I discussed some of my trades and influenced people. That would break my heart. :(
Another special friend who posts here (I won't mention his name, he would share if he wanted to) is taking a different approach than me. He is trading in and out.
I think he feels safer that way and he avoids any corrections -- at least that is his plan -- and so far, so good.
.
Mr Pig said: "Now you tell me! :--)
Maybe you should write a newsletter on PM's. I think you really know your stuff."
Mr Pig,
I've known you for a long time now and your sense of humor is famous, but I think that may be the funniest thing you ever said. LOL!
Riding AGQ is like riding a Brahma Bull. You expect to get thrown off any minute, but are afraid to get off of the darn thing and miss all the fun. :)
I could sell out any minute, but don't know when that minute will appear.
.
Honey wrote:
Oh my goodness! I'm so glad silver went up. I sure wouldn't want to lose any good friends because I discussed some of my trades and influenced people. That would break my heart. :(
I wouldn't have held you responsible if it would have turned out badly, but your comment shows an important difference between you and Bob Brinker. When Brinker's trades turn out badly he simply blames his subscribers for following his advice. In all the years I've listened to Moneytalk I can't remember him saying "I'm sorry" or "I apologize" for any bad advice he has given. The closest he ever came was the QQQ trade when he simply said " We were wrong".
BTW one trade I have been playing from time to time is TNA. I made this play on weakness such as during the Japan nuclear crisis and also the day that S&P downgraded the U.S. debt. I'm not recommending others do this but it's worked out for me. I guess you could say it's my favorite leverage play like AGQ is yours.
Thanks Jim....
I took a look at TNA. It looks like you have done very well with it. Are you of the "go away in May" school -- expecting a market correction?
I'm a bit concerned that the market may react negatively to the end of QE2 in June.
I sold about half of my position in AGQ this morning -- NAV up almost 25% from my purchase price in less than two weeks.
It may have been a mistake, but seems like silver is due for another small "heath-giving" correction." :)
If it comes, I will buy back in quick as a bunny....
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Honey wrote:
Are you of the "go away in May" school -- expecting a market correction?
I'm a bit concerned that the market may react negatively to the end of QE2 in June.
I think the market has already priced in the end of QE2. Most investors are confident that the economy is stable enough now that a QE3 is not necessary. This year my plan will be to "STAY in May".
Jim,
That makes sense to me...
BTW: I repurchased the AGQ that I sold this morning after it dropped down so I could get a bit of a scalp. Didn't quite get the top or the bottom, but sure not complaining. :)
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Now that April trading is in the history books, it's time to check out the long term indicator of monthly MACD. This is the best long term indicator I have found, and it kept me out of the 2008 debacle.
Take a look if you wish to see that this indicator is still wildly bullish and has not come even close to a sell (crossover) signal. Here's the link:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/print/print.asp?nosettings=1&symb=spx&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=3377&style=320&freq=3&time=12&rand=1628619711&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=4&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1&showColor=True&returnUrl=%2fadvchart%2fframes%2fframes.asp%3fshow%3d%26insttype%3dIndex%26symb%3dspx%26time%3d12%26startdate%3d1%252F4%252F1999%26enddate%3d4%252F30%252F2011%26freq%3d3%26compidx%3daaaaa%253A0%26comptemptext%3d%26comp%3dnone%26ma%3d0%26maval%3d9%26uf%3d0%26lf%3d4%26lf2%3d0%26lf3%3d0%26type%3d2%26style%3d320%26size%3d2%26timeFrameToggle%3dfalse%26compareToToggle%3dfalse%26indicatorsToggle%3dfalse%26chartStyleToggle%3dfalse%26state%3d10%26x%3d35%26y%3d3
- Dan G
Thanks Dan....looks good for May. I haven't read what Sy Harding is saying about his Seasons in the Sun (go away in May) advice.
Here's your link:
BigCharts SPX
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Thanks for condensing down that ungodly link to Bigcharts. I tried to find out how to condense it, but had no luck. Perhaps you could give a one-semester course on the method?
As for Sy Harding, he was so embarrased about last "sell in May" that he is offering a half-price sale on his advisory service. I think that's admirable and something maybe Bob Brinker should consider doing after blowing the 2008 bear market call...or non-call. But don't hold your breath!
I was tempted to take Sy up on his offer, but decided against it. I don't like to confuse my own analysis with other opinions. I find myself second-guessing my own ideas, and that's not a good thing usually.
- Dan G
As for Sy Harding, he was so embarrased about last "sell in May" that he is offering a half-price sale on his advisory service. I think that's admirable and something maybe Bob Brinker should consider doing after blowing the 2008 bear market call...or non-call. But don't hold your breath!
I was tempted to take Sy up on his offer, but decided against it. I don't like to confuse my own analysis with other opinions.
First of all let me commend you for taking personal responsibility and not trying to pawn your poor decisions or your oft victories on anyone else's advice. These days, real men are far and few between.
The oddest thing I have noted about Brinker's callers is when they call in they admit they are subscribers, that they listen to his show, and then they proceed to thank him while explaining how they made money by not following his advice. It is like bizarro world from Seinfled episode.
Fluffiest of greetings to you,
tfb
Thanks for the kind words, Mr. Bunny!
I used to be a big Brinker fan and would crack a brewskie every Saturday and Sunday and sit out in the back yard to listen at his feet.
That got a bit old after the ridiculous Q-trade in which he cast aside all trading rules and let a small loss grow into a gargantuan one. Fortunately I had a close stop and only lost a few percent. Others were not that fortunate.
Then he blew the 2008 bear market. Once again I had the good fortune of having discovered my favorite long-term indicator, monthly MACD. It may not be perfect (nothing is), but it has not failed me so far (knock on wood).
Good luck and be a good bunny!
- Dan G
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