Bob Brinker's comments summarized, paraphrased or excepted:
STOCK MARKET....Brinker reported the latest closing numbers for the stock market. He said the Dow is less than 1% under its 2011 high. The S&P year-to-date return, including dividends, is 5.5%.
Honey EC: Brinker is still quite bullish in spite of the level of the market, and in spite of world events and government spending.
April 2011, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We expect the S&P 500 Index to make additional progress into the low-to-mid 1400's range within the next 12 months based on our earnings and P/E multiple expectations. The potential for gains beyond that range will be a function of the sustainability of the economic recovery and the ability of the Federal Reserve to manage monetary policy."TREASURIES RATES...."Low, low, low.... Brinker said: " Treasury bills will not yield 1/16 of 1% annual forever.....they will normalize at some point....When they normalize, the cost of paying the interest on the national debt could rise to trillion dollars a year. Yeah, I just said it! If we keep running up this debt as we are, adding another $1.6 trillion this year. We are already shooting for $15 trillion and the CBO says in ten years, we could be up another $10 trillion on the national debt. How about $24 trillion in ten years if we don't get a handle on this - which we must."
HOUSING MARKET....is making an effort at stabilization, but it has been "reeling." It was helped by QE2, but when that expires, Brinker is not sure how long there will be interest rates below 5%.
GOVERNMENT SPENDING CUTS....Brinker said: "It was much adieu about nothing....The 38 billion dollars represents a 1% reduction in government spending for this year.....That's the percentage they agreed upon while threatening to shut down the government.....This is what we get from the best government money can buy.....And as they say, 'elevator, elevator, we got the shaft'....."
INFLATION....Brinker said: "Inflation is really low, the core rate 1/10 of 1%, up for the month of March. And year-over-year the core rate up 1.2, and that is what the Federal Reserve watches. They want to keep the core rate below 2%. So far they are getting their wish at 1.2 on the CPI."
MEDICARE IS UNSUSTAINABLE....Brinker said: "We have a current Medicare set up that is completely unsustainable. Tens of trillions of dollars in unfunded liabilities in Medicare that have to be addressed. Taxes in the United States usually come in at about 18% of Gross Domestic Product when you add it all in. That is not going to pay for the current promises."
IT'S A FOOL'S GAME, MR PRESIDENT..... Brinker said: "And the idea from the president to raise rates on the high earners is not going to work.....It's a fool's game, Mr. President. And the reason? Because there are not enough high earners to raise the money needed. It's that simple."
CONSEQUENCES TO FREE-SPENDING GOVERNMENT....Brinker said: "With what's going on in Greece and Ireland and Portugal - Greece, technically insolvent. Ireland, technically insolvent. Portugal on it's way. We've already seen enough evidence that you cannot carry on free-spending government policies without consequences. And in this case the consequences will be major. But there's time to address it and I hope they will address it....Ignoring it is the worst thing, which is what we've been doing for the past decade."
UNCLE SAM and the PRECIOUS METALS TAX....Brinker said: "People do worry that the government is going to come in and put this rule in or that rule in. They've already done it with the precious metals.....If you make a profit on a precious metals trade, you get hit over the head. They nail you. And if you live in a high tax state, you have to add that on. But in addition to that, the Feds nail you. If you make money in any kind of a precious metal trade, your tax is totally different - way higher for you. They play these kinds of games and consequently, people get cynical. And I think cynicism is a healthy thing when it comes to Uncle Sam. But then again, I'm not a paid lobbyist. If I were a paid lobbyist, I'm sure I wouldn't say something like that to you."
FAIR (FLAT?) TAX…. There were a couple of calls on this subject today and Brinker was adamant that what he called the “flat tax” was a very bad idea and would likely be nearer to 35% than the 22% that the advocates are projecting. Brinker also said it would devastate the real estate market, which is already 23% under water. But he said the good news is that the “flat tax” has gone nowhere and is in the “batter’s box taking call strikes until they strike out.”
Caller Sue from Cape Carl tried to explain to Brinker that the Fair Tax is not a “flat tax.” He clearly did not want to listen to Sue's explanation and repeatedly interrupted her. Later he talked to another caller about what Sue had said.
QE2 and BRINKER’S INVESTMENT LETTER INCOME PORTFOLIO….Caller Jim in New York asked Brinker what he thought would happen to people like him who are following Brinker’s investment letter fixed income portfolio when QE2 ends. He specifically wanted to know the effect on the Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund, the Vanguard High-Yield Fund and the Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Bonds.
Honey EC: Brinker began his answer to Jim by hawking his "off-the-books" fixed income portfolio that he now calls his "income portfolio" because he added stock holdings to it (a fact that was exposed right here on this blog). Note that Brinker is still struggling with getting used to the new name for the portfolio. Don't worry Bob, this is only the second week that you have been using the new name. It'll come more naturally as time goes on. LOL!
Brinker replied: "Well, Jim, as you surely know, we have made changes to the investment portfolio, that's the investment portfolio on page seven that's the income portfolio. We made significant changes earlier this year in that portfolio. The reasons we made those changes were to position that portfolio, in the event that the interest rate picture changes sometime in 2011....The effective date for those changes was January 10th as we published back in the investment letter.....I'm comfortable that it's better position to deal with interest rate market we have to deal with....."
Honey EC: Brinker is correct that he made changes to what he, at the time called his fixed income portfolio in January, 2011. He reduced Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund from 40% to 25%; reduced Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade from 35% to 25%; sold all Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities; added 25% Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund; added 10% Vanguard High-Yield Fund (total 25%).......Brinker finally got around to answering the QE2 question:
Brinker continued with his reply to Jim: "Well what's going to happen at the end of June when QE2 expires is that the Federal Reserve will no longer be buy 75 billion dollars a month in Treasury securities...That means there is less demand by that 75 billion amount for Treasury securities once QE2 expires. That means that as long as the Treasury continues to offer these securities at a very high rate, because of our trillion dollar plus deficits - way over a trillion this year - closer to a trillion and a half, 1.6 trillion - mind boggling numbers.....That Treasury paper will be available on the market so it will be available to the lowest bidder....The Treasury takes the lowest it can get......I would say that the risk is that you could see 50 to 100 basis points in the Treasury market when the Treasury has to make these offerings without the help of the Federal Reserve in there buying on the Quantitative Easing program.....And I'm comfortable that that is the risk....once we get into July.....Right now, I don't expect a QE3...."
Caller Jim from Cedar Rapids asked Brinker if he thought that the government might help itself to his ROTH IRA. Brinker told him that he knows some people worry about that because President Christina down in Argentina has confiscated some pension money. He said the difference is that she is not president of the United States and that it would be very difficult to get the votes to take away the privileges of ROTH. He is aware that there are cases where the government has changed the rules after the game has started, but he thinks ROTHS are safe.
Caller Norma from Missouri said we need to "get rid of foreign aid." Brinker told her that foreign aid was a lightening rod issue, but when you look at the 4 trillion dollar a year the Federal government is spending, it's a tiny sliver.
Caller David in "KGO country" wanted to know how to go about combining his two 401K programs from former employers. Brinker recommended that he roll it into a self-directed IRA with a low-cost no-load families. Brinker mentioned Vanguard Group and Fidelity.
Honey EC: Brinker never mentions Charles Schwab even though Schwab offers competitive prices. I have often wondered why not, and may have found the answer in an old document (no longer available on the internet) that reported on the sale of Brinker's BJGroup. The BJGroup had been using Schwab to manage their vast clientele, but when they sold to Centurion (GFAM), they pulled out all 2,247 accounts with an average of $273,000 each. Excerpts from the article:
"BJ Group's 2,247 accounts through December 1999 held an average of $273,000. The advisory requires at least $100,000 to open an account and allocates customer funds into no-load mutual funds available through Charles Schwab Corp.'s fund supermarket....
.....In addition, Centurion plans to largely end BJ Group's longstanding custody and trading relationship with Schwab. It will transfer the bulk of the accounts to Centurion's Phoenix trust company unit, which has custody of $1.7 billion and operates its own fund supermarket."
SILVER AND GOLD MARKET....Caller Chuck from Iowa said that his dad had 90% of his portfolio in silver. He wanted to know what might make the bottom fall out of the silver market. Brinker told him that silver and gold are both "speculative metals" so you are at the mercy of "whatever price the speculators are willing to pay based on whatever reasons they conjure up."
Brinker continued: "So to try to make a specific forecast on what's going to be the next speculative appetite in gold and silver is very difficult. And I say this even though on this program on a number of occasions, I've recommended both gold and silver as a hedge for those who want to have a hedge in their portfolio. Specifically, I've recommended the exchange-traded-fund, GLD for gold, backed by gold bullion and the exchange-traded-fund SLV backed by silver bullion....
So even though I've made that recommendation for those who want to have a hedge and those investments have done extremely well, I still have to come back to square one....gold and silver are speculative assets.....I'd hold exposure in the 4% area. If I were investing in gold, I would not have more than 4% in gold. If I were investing in silver, I would not have more than 4% in silver.....of your total portfolio.....If you had them both, you would be doubling up because they have a very high correlation over time. Recently, silver has done better than gold, but there have been plenty of times when gold has done better than silver."
Honey EC: First, Brinker has never at any time told the Moneytalk audience OR his newsletter subscribers to limit their GLD holdings to 4%!!!
And second, regular blog readers know that I have covered the deceptiveness of Brinker's so-called gold "recommendations" quite thoroughly - a search of the blog will bring them up. Here is a link to an in-depth article that I wrote addressing the question of whether or not Brinker has ever recommended gold.
And just last week someone who is familiar with Brinker's habit of taking credit for himself even when it isn't due, sent the following comments. I think my friend Birdbrain might have even "misunderestimated" Mr B's willingness to say he recommended silver when all he said about it was that it could be used as a substitute for gold:
1. Speaking of government spending, Brinker said: "The numbers have become so ridiculous that they make Donald Trump's hair look normal."
Honey sez: People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.
2. Speaking of the repeal of the Glas Steagall Act, Brinker said: "It was far worse than anything Clinton did in the Oval Office."
Honey asks: Sez who? You? Your moral compass is, in my opinion, questionable.
Brinker's guest-speaker today was Stijn Van Nieuremburgh.Moneytalk on demand, with Bob Brinker, is available for audio/podcasting FREE at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. The program is archived in the 1-4pm time-slots. You can take it with you! I download and save all three hours, including the third hour guest-speaker, so that I can refer back to them in the future if Bob Brinker mentions something about them on the air. KGO Radio MP3 Sunday Archives
Dixiegeezer's family of ducks, taken this morning (Thursday) Click to enlarge:
These are the trees that bloom every April nearby where I live. The trees get quite large and are stunningly beautiful.
80 comments:
I just heard Bob Brinker say that he has recommend both gold and silver as a hedge.
But he says you should limit your investment to no more than 4% of your portfolio in either gold or silver or both.
The question is what kind of a hedge is that with only 4% of your portfolio? What about the other 96%?
Good question Al. I had to put my socks back on when I heard him say that.
I will add some more information about what Brinker said later when I'm not working on my summary.
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From Yahoo Finance:
iShares Silver Trust
(NYSEArca: SLV)
After Hours: 42.04 Up 0.20 (0.48%) 7:59PM EDT
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Honey
You said 40% of people don't pay federal income taxes. I assume your number was from 2009. Here is part of an article that estimates the number will go up this year.
"There are so many breaks that 45 percent of U.S. households will pay no federal income tax for 2010, according to estimates by the Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank.
It's the fact that we are using the tax code both to collect revenue, which is its primary purpose, and to deliver these spending benefits that we run into the situation where so many people are paying no taxes," said Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the center, which generated the estimate of people who pay no income taxes.
Actually Jeff, the poor and middle class pay neary the same total dollars into the tax system as the rich. We do it through "Payroll taxes" that are not invested like real pensions but spent just like regular income and corporate income taxes.
See
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/background/numbers/revenue.cfm
and
http://www.usgovernmentrevenue.com/yearrev2010_0.html
The Ponzi scheme called "Social Security" is one of the biggest frauds hoisted on a population in history. They have people like you thinking the poor don't pay their fair share but it is a lie. The very rich supporting BOTH the GOP and Democrats benefit from the deficits, probably far more than the poor who get food stamps and other tokens to get them to vote for democrats. Look at all the California billionaires supporting Obama these days. They all seem to want handouts for their "clean energy" companies and other ways of getting more than their share of government spending. Someday folks will wake up and understand it better.
It is sickening. We spend far more than we take in, the power elite have the two parties waring over the crumbs while they get wealthy from the huge deficits to buy things the power elite just so happen to provide be it cruise missiles, burning food for fuel (ethanol scam), overly generous pensions and salaries to government workers to keep voting for Democrats, or tax cuts to the middle class to get their votes for the GOP...
This is a must read: On Tax Day, Libertarians call spending compromise "travesty" ""Just in time for Tax Day, the Republicans and Democrats in Congress have joined hands to clobber American taxpayers.
combining his two 401K programs from former employers. Brinker recommended that he roll it into a self-directed IRA with a low-cost no-load families. Brinker mentioned Vanguard Group and Fidelity.
Fluffy, the broken record says:
I have mentioned this several times in the the past, but you need to consider the relative ease that your IRA can become attached verses a 401K plan. Historically predatory creditors such as the IRS have had little trouble liquidating your IRAs to satisfy supposed judgments, but they have not had the same success when going after 401ks or pensions.
I am not an expert in this area, but my limited understanding is a 401k is much harder to get a judgment against than an IRA.
Just something else to consider especially in the day of health care induced bankruptcy (in which case a home if FL may be preferable).
tfb
Kirk said...
"Actually Jeff, the poor and middle class pay neary the same total dollars into the tax system as the rich. We do it through "Payroll taxes" that are not invested like real pensions but spent just like regular income and corporate income taxes."
You don't hear much about that. And practically EVERYBODY pays payroll taxes if they have a job or even if they are self-employed.
Even those working poor who pay zero income taxes pay payroll taxes.
I guess that's why all those rich people like a cap on payroll taxes and wind up paying a far smaller percentage of their income than poor folks.
Somebody posted on the last thread that:
"Currently the top 1% of earners pay about 40% of the taxes. The bottom 50% pay about 3%. That's fair?"
I can see now that statement is for INCOME taxes only and the really misleading if you include Payroll Taxes.
So when you hear all that talk about how the rich pay the vast majority of taxes, it's just not true if you consider TOTAL taxes.
Whenever precious metals are discussed on Moneytalk you can be sure Brinker will use the word "speculation". Speculation can mean different things to different people. Some people might think that trying to play a counter-trend rally during a bear market is speculation. Others might think that using a marketiming formula to predict bull and bear markets is speculation.
The other word that comes up during a precious metals discussion with Brinker
is "hedge". An investor must decide what they want to hedge against happening(inflation, weak dollar, rising interest rates etc.). To determine the proper percentage to hedge one must decide the probabilities of certain events happening.
As Al correctly stated if an investor only hedges 4% of their portfolio and the other 96% gets crushed, then there was very little point in hedging. The 4% rule is fine for an individual stock because such an investment can go to zero. However Gold and Silver will never go to zero so I don't see a problem with having a bit more than 4%. It's true that metals can sometimes have declines in excess of 50%, but so can the stock market as we all know from 2008.
Bob Brinker will tell you that he is an investor, not a speculator.But since he likes to play counter-trend rallies and time the stock market perhaps he is more of a speculator than he thinks he is.
April 18, 2011, 9:10 a.m. EDT
S&P cuts U.S. ratings outlook to negative
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's cut its ratings outlook on the U.S. to negative from stable while keeping its Triple-A rating on the world's largest economy. "More than two years after the beginning of the recent crisis, U.S. policymakers have still not agreed on how to reverse recent fiscal deterioration or address longer-term fiscal pressures," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Nikola G. Swann. U.S. stock futures plunged on the news, with Dow industrial futures falling 167 points.
Here's the link to the story about the S&P downgrading U.S. debt outlook to negative.
No matter how far the stock market drops, I'm sure Bob Brinker will claim it's another exogenous event and have Moneytalk guests who wrote books about it for years in the future. :)
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The Wall Street Journal has a great write-up about "taxing the rich." I can't copy it all here, but I think you would find it a very informative read.
"A dominant theme of President Obama's budget speech last Wednesday was that our fiscal problems would vanish if only the wealthiest Americans were asked "to pay a little more." Since he's asking, imagine that instead of proposing to raise the top income tax rate well north of 40%, the President decided to go all the way to 100%.
Let's stipulate that this is a thought experiment, because Democrats don't need any more ideas. But it's still a useful experiment because it exposes the fiscal futility of raising rates on the top 2%, or even the top 5% or 10%, of taxpayers to close the deficit. The mathematical reality is that in the absence of entitlement reform on the Paul Ryan model, Washington will need to soak the middle class—because that's where the big money is."
Read more
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"Caller Jim from Cedar Rapids asked Brinker if he thought that the government might help itself to his ROTH IRA..... He is aware that there are cases where the government has changed the rules after the game has started, but he thinks ROTHS are safe.
Anyone who argues for a flat tax to replace the income tax is arguing to tax ROTHs. The only way I figured out to be fair to ROTH investors if a flat tax comes about would be for the Treasury to borrow or print (with the Fed's help) more money and give it to each ROTH account to make up for the tax. The idea is the treasury would eventually get this money back, with interest, when the ROTHs are liquidated.
Kirk said...
"Anyone who argues for a flat tax to replace the income tax is arguing to tax ROTHs. The only way I figured out to be fair to ROTH investors if a flat tax comes about would be for the Treasury to borrow or print (with the Fed's help) more money and give it to each ROTH account to make up for the tax."
Lotsa luck!
A government intent on raising revenues is not about to be "fair".
A Roth account is exempt from "income tax" not a value added tax, a production tax or even a sales tax.
Life is not fair but thank you for playing.
Well Dan,
having sold TMV last week at $46.19, I decided to buy it back today at $41.97....
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Hi Fluffy,
I certainly agree with your comments. Also, some may think that ROTH IRA's are safer than regular IRA's.
Personally, I have never trusted the government to let them stand forever as they were established -- they just seem too good to be true.
Hope your campaign is going well....
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Al said...
Kirk said...
"Actually Jeff, the poor and middle class pay neary the same total dollars into the tax system as the rich. We do it through "Payroll taxes" that are not invested like real pensions but spent just like regular income and corporate income taxes."
You don't hear much about that. And practically EVERYBODY pays payroll taxes if they have a job or even if they are self-employed.
Even those working poor who pay zero income taxes pay payroll taxes.
______________________
Yes the poor pay the payroll tax but some of them get refunds from the income tax even though their taxes are small or zero. This comes from credits found between lines 63 through line 71 of form 1040.
One major difference between the payroll tax and the income tax is if you live past a certain age you start getting your money back. Many of my relatives have gotten far more back than they put in.
Hope your campaign is going well....
2nd out of 4....sigh...70% voted for tax and spend liberals...
I truly love how Brinker that bashed gold from $250 an ounce and silver around $4 an ounce is now recommending them and make it appear he was the whole time.
Remember - gold is dead money and anyone that has every invested it has lost money?
Brinker - retire to your dump in Neveda.
Joey
TFB said: "2nd out of 4....sigh...70% voted for tax and spend liberals..."
That sounds like the stupid voters in California -- vote for those who are for ROBBING Peter to give to Paul, the freeloader.
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Joey said: "I truly love how Brinker that bashed gold from $250 an ounce and silver around $4 an ounce is now recommending them and make it appear he was the whole time.
Remember - gold is dead money and anyone that has every invested it has lost money?"
Yes, I do remember, but he went even further than that. The following is from my June 2009 Moneytalk summary:
GOLD.....Brinker explained that if you go back to the 1980-81 time period, gold was over $800 an ounce, and it is now over $900 an ounce. So over 30 years, it's only about 15% higher.
Bob Brinker said, "So if you want to look at that long period of time, it's been a lousy hedge against inflation. Because if you took 30 years worth of inflation and you compare it to the price of gold over that same time line, you are going to see inflation went up a lot more than the price of gold. Oh the other hand, if you go to the early 1970's when President Nixon completely removed the United States from the gold standard in any way, shape or form, then in that situation, it was $35 an ounce. The price was fixed up until then....If you take it from $35 an ounce up to its current price in the $900, then in that case, you would see it had outpaced inflation during that time......
.....Although inflation is one factor that has to be considered when you're looking at gold prices, there are a number of other factors that you have to consider.......And they change from time to time. One of the factors you have to consider is the amount of gold that is being sold by central banks. The largest individual holders of gold bullion, gold bars, are central banks around the world. There are central banks around the world who have vaults loaded with gold bullion bars......Another factor you have to look at is production versus consumption and this is done on an annual basis.....varies from year to year.....
......When I was at the Bank of New York, I did a gold study for the bank....that was done in the late 70's.....And as part of that, I had to get into this pretty deeply because I had to go to London, Paris....Frankfort, also to Zurich and Geneva .....to complete this study.....And I can actually tell you that I sat down in Zurich, Switzerland with the gnomes of Zurich. I was there. So I have a little experience on the subject of gold and I can tell you that at that time, gold was approaching the $800 area.......And since that time, I think that people that bought gold then and have held it since are probably pretty disappointed with it. But it had a tremendous run-up off the $35 in the early 70's........
....."I would say this, if you are looking at gold for any reason, my suggestion is that you try to keep your expenses really low. And outside of just buying the gold coins, which you can generally buy at a small premium over asset value. Aside from that.....the best vehicle I've seen out there is the Exchange Traded Fund, symbol GLD......very low expenses.....And basically you own gold bullion.....gold bullion standing behind the shares......Let's not forget world events. World events would include things like what was going on when people were getting out of Vietnam and were sewing gold coins into their clothing to avoid detection. Things of that sort where people can be hoarding gold for one reason or another -- aside from the annual consumption for gold for jewelry."
What Bob Brinker was saying about gold two years ago
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"That sounds like the stupid voters in California -- vote for those who are for ROBBING Peter to give to Paul, the freeloader."
The SF Muni operator on TV last night said it is hard work.
San Francisco Muni operators may vote to strike
"SFMTA spokesman Charles Goodyear said the threat of a strike will not affect negotiations. He would not say what disciplinary action Muni would take if the union struck.
Goodyear said Prop. G set up an arbitration system to prevent work stoppages and any strike authorization would be inappropriate. He also called the union’s financial arguments misleading. He said the SFMTA is facing a $22.3 million budget shortfall and that the average operator earns $101,000 in salary and benefits. "
Driver salaries fueling deficit
2,350 Muni operators
82 Operators that earned more than $100,000
Top pay was $210,548 to drive a bus! Why bother with Harvard then a job at GS where you have to work 12-18 hr days 7 days a week when you can get this gig in SF?
That sounds like the stupid voters in California -- vote for those who are for ROBBING Peter to give to Paul, the freeloader.
Well Honey, I gave it my best shot. And like many people in CA I am hopeful of leaving my state. I am tiding up a few loose ends, but I hope to be free of state income tax within the next 45 days and enjoying much lower property taxes in a far more desirable climate :)
What people seem no to grasp is most high value jobs do not have a geographical restriction, so you will continue to see higher end resources migrating to lower tax, higher quality of life locations. Over the next 20-30 years the shift could be very dramatic.
It will be interesting to see if those parents will choose to enroll their children in on-line schools or stay with the inefficient and ineffective brick and mortar schools in their new communities.
I am hopeful we will see an even more divided country in the future where states re-exert their sovereign rights and become strongly segregated by income and pay-for-use-services. Leaving behind enclaves of the useless trying to tax one another to support them self. Thus forcing a rebirth of self sufficiency.
tfb
TFB,
You are fortunate if you can pull up stakes and leave your state. I am not in a position to do that unless I am willing to leave my family -- and they have job situations that they simply cannot walk away from.
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Top pay was $210,548 for a bus driver.
Aren't unions great. That is more money than US senators, cabinet members and most governors make. Maybe politicians need a union.
Jeff,
Right, especially PUBLIC EMPLOYEE UNIONS!
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I worry that the only people this is good for are those holding it, either in coins or the ETF's.
I'm still holding AGQ which closed at $305 -- surprisingly close to a double for me in less than a month.
___written by John Spence:
"A late-session push by iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV) carried the exchange traded fund (SLV) over $43 a share for the first time while gold prices homed in on $1,500 an ounce.
The iShares Silver Trust was up more than 1% in afternoon trading Tuesday, rising again in the wake of Standard & Poor’s warning on the U.S. debt load.
The U.S. dollar weakened against rivals as precious metals were bid higher.
Gold has gained 32% in the past 12 months, while silver prices have more than doubled, Bloomberg reported.
“The U.S. credit rating will undoubtedly be lowered in the next few years,” said Michael Pento, a senior economist at Euro Pacific Capital, according to the report. “This will mean much higher borrowing costs and a much lower currency. International investors have been using gold and silver as an alternative currency and an alternative to the dollar, and this will only exacerbate and accelerate that process.”
The silver ETF was trading at a fresh 52-week high on Tuesday afternoon. [Silver ETFs See Performance Diverge on Premium.]
ETFTrends
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Al said: "But he says you should limit your investment to no more than 4% of your portfolio in either gold or silver or both.
The question is what kind of a hedge is that with only 4% of your portfolio? What about the other 96%?
Al, it's a joke, in my opinion. It's also totally disengenous for him to say that. I believe he said it for one reason, to cover his arse in case gold or silver should take a dive.
He can then say something like this: "If you've been listening to the program, you know that I have always said you should limit your exposure to gold to only 4%."
But the fact remains, he has never written that in his newsletter. Matter of fact, he has never even given a suggested buy price range in his newsletter.
One might assume that the price in May 2009, when he added GLD to his "off-the-books" list of recommended stocks, was his buy price, but he didn't say so and he DID NOT SAY HOW MUCH TO BUY!
Actually, if you go by what he DOES SAY, the sky is the limit because he EXEMPTS ETF's from his 4% rule.
The bottom line is, Brinker has given follow-up advice on Suncor which he added the same month as he added GLD, but he has NEVER given any advice about buying GLD in his newsletter.
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Ralph, you'll be interested in this bit of sickening news:
Jeanne Sahadi, senior writer, On Tuesday April 19, 2011, 1:23 pm EDT
In making the case for why lawmakers need to tackle the long-term debt, President Obama chose the one projection that brings home the point better than any other.
By 2025, he noted last week, Medicare, Medicaid Social Security and interest on the debt will suck up virtually all federal tax revenue.
"That's it," Obama said. "Every other national priority -- education, transportation, even national security -- will have to be paid for with borrowed money."
That scenario is just 14 years from now, when today's five-year-olds will be entering college and the current crop of 50-year-olds will be eager to retire.
But the cash crunch would be felt even sooner.
By 2020, spending on Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and interest on the debt will leave only 11 cents of every federal tax dollar to fund everything else the government does, according to projections made in March from the Government Accountability Office.
The good news, if you can call it that, is that in January the GAO had projected there would only be 8 cents left over, but since then the agency has cut its estimate of how much interest the government will have to pay.
In any case, 11 cents is still much worse than the 24 cents that the government has left over today after paying for the big four line items."
Read more: CNN-Yahoo.Finance
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"Actually, if you go by what he DOES SAY, the sky is the limit because he EXEMPTS ETF's from his 4% rule."
To be fair, I think Brinker exempts the 4% rule for broad market index ETFs like SPY and VTI.
The whole idea of the 4% limitation is to ensure diversification and certainly wouldn't include highly concentrated ETFs like GLD and SLV.
Same would be true I would think for single county ETFs like Egypt or Ireland.
arco
Arco said: "To be fair, I think Brinker exempts the 4% rule for broad market index ETFs like SPY and VTI.
Arco,
Please post a quote where he EVER wrote anything even similar to that in Marketimer.
.
"Please post a quote where he EVER wrote anything even similar to that in Marketimer."
No can do as I have never subscribed to Marketimer.
But, OTOH can you please post a quote where he ever wrote that ALL ETFs are exempt from the 4% rule?
arco
Arco,
I believe that you don't subscribe, but I don't believe that you aren't aware that there are only two kinds of stock investments on Brinker's "Individual Issues" list.
1. Three individual stocks: SU, MSFT and VOD.
2. All remaining recommendations are ETF's, including GLD.
He points out that: "Individual stock holdings are limited to no more than four percent of total equities in order to manage risk."
NOW do you get it?
.
GE was always exempted from the 4% rule.
Then again, maybe GE should be exempted from your portfolio?
Arco
Are you the Arco that posted at the MSN megasite with Libertypilgrim? I remember Liberty was recommending gold and silver stocks when they were dirt cheap. I hope he didn't sell.
I believe Mr B's 4% rule is simply a cover for his recommendations.
Should one of his picks decline in value he could state how such strict diversification protects a portfolio, while he could boast about a big winner of his in percentage terms without mentioning that the 4% limit would result in a mostly negligible impact on said portfolio.
Plus The Great Brinkerni has the ability to make a losing pick magically disappear from his newsletter, never to be heard from again. I was reminded of that this morning when the side of my milk carton read "Have you seen this missing QQQ trade?"
Birdbrain said:
Plus The Great Brinkerni has the ability to make a losing pick magically disappear from his newsletter, never to be heard from again. I was reminded of that this morning when the side of my milk carton read "Have you seen this missing QQQ trade?"
You are correct Birdbrain.
Recently Brinker has been telling everyone the share price of GLD and SLV when he first mentioned them, however he never says what price QQQ was when he first mentioned it. That was the one time he should have followed his 4%rule and didn't. Instead he recommended up to 50% of cash reserves.
"I can see now that statement is for INCOME taxes only and the really misleading if you include Payroll Taxes.
So when you hear all that talk about how the rich pay the vast majority of taxes, it's just not true if you consider TOTAL taxes."
May be, but there is a big difference between income taxes and payroll taxes. FICA is a payroll tax, but with it comes a future promise to pay you social security if/when you retire. Income taxes promise you nothing.
TIPS yield negative; auction will have a coupon
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Yields on 5-year inflation-linked Treasury bonds are currently trading below zero, but Thursday's auction of the new security will carry a positive coupon, analysts at TD Securities said Wednesday. That will still make this the second 5-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities auction with a negative yield, as low yields on regular Treasury securities and higher inflation worries keep up demand for TIPS. "The real yield of -20 to -25 basis points at auction will just mean that the price is further over par," said Richard Gilhooly, director of rates strategy at TD Securities. The auction will probably carry a coupon of 0.125%, per the Treasury Department's new policy, he said. The gap between 5-year TIPS and regular 5-year Treasurys -- seen as a measure of investors' inflation expectations over that time horizon -- were about 2.35% on Tuesday, according to Barclays Capital.
Hot Tipster
The Dow appears to be poised to soar through the 12,500 level as Intel earnings soar.
This in spite of S&P's assessment of the U.S.'s finances, essentially labeling us deadbeats.
Obviously investors are looking ahead rather than in the rear-view mirror. All systems are GO, IMHO!
UNREAL:
GOLD SURPASSES $1500, WHILE SILVER HURDLES OVER $44 – The US dollar slipped against six major currencies and is trading at a 16 month low. This, along with continued concerns with inflationary pressures and the US and European debt problems,have propelled both gold and silver upwards.
Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 4/20/2011
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The Government has decided to dump its holdings in "Government Motors"...right at the low of the year,taking an 11 billion dollar loss. GM is totally oversold here. Brilliant trading decision, government! No wonder you are going broke!
"The Government has decided to dump its holdings in "Government Motors"...right at the low of the year,taking an 11 billion dollar loss. GM is totally oversold here. Brilliant trading decision, government! No wonder you are going broke!"
Obama needs to dump GM before the election.
So I don't think he wants stand up at a press conference and say ... Well, we are really oversold here so I am going to wait and sell on strength. Maybe sell if it ever gets back to $52.
Nope, he would rather dump it now and take a hit that will be long forgotten before election time.
"And retaining a stake come election season would be a political liability. Some voters already suspect Obama’s Democrats of being closet socialists. Hanging on to GM shares would hand Republicans an easy target they would be sure to attack.
But a rush to sell brings its own headache: Treasury only breaks even if it sells for more than $52 a share, some 73 percent above the current price. The stock’s unlikely to hit that any time soon. So a secondary offering in the next few months would hand Obama’s opponents another welcome gift."
http://blogs.reuters.com/columns/2011/04/20/white-house-in-a-pickle-over-its-gm-exit-plan/
Some of you men may want to know about this -- or maybe some wives would like to know about it. LOL!!!
Privacy fears raised as researchers reveal file on iPhone that stores location coordinates and timestamps of owner's movements
Security researchers have discovered that Apple's iPhone keeps track of where you go – and saves every detail of it to a secret file on the device which is then copied to the owner's computer when the two are synchronised.
The file contains the latitude and longitude of the phone's recorded coordinates along with a timestamp, meaning that anyone who stole the phone or the computer could discover details about the owner's movements using a simple program.
For some phones, there could be almost a year's worth of data stored, as the recording of data seems to have started with Apple's iOS 4 update to the phone's operating system, released in June 2010.
"Apple has made it possible for almost anybody – a jealous spouse, a private detective – with access to your phone or computer to get detailed information about where you've been," said Pete Warden, one of the researchers.
Read more:
iPhone keeps record of everywhere you go
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Birdbrain said: "Plus The Great Brinkerni has the ability to make a losing pick magically disappear from his newsletter, never to be heard from again. I was reminded of that this morning when the side of my milk carton read "Have you seen this missing QQQ trade?"
In each issue of Marketimer, from November 2000 until March 2003, Bob Brinker kept his word and gave followup advice on his QQQ buy recommendation (the one he told subscribers to use model portfolio money to buy) in every issue of Marketimer.
(I have each quote if anyone wants to read them, I will post them.)
After QQQ lost over 70% of its value from his buy price, in March 2003, he gave the final advice on those shares and buried them forever with these words:
March, 2003 Marketimer, page 2, Paragraph 5, Bob Brinker said: "We continue to suggest a patient approach to the stock market. We recommend holding existing positions at this time. For subscribers holding Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares, we recommend holding for significant recovery in the shares in the next cyclical bull market."
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And to continue: Here is how he buried the costly, unaccounted for QQQ trades.
In April 2003 Marketimer, he wrote that as of March 11, 2003, he had returned all cash reserves (including the portion he recommended subscribers use to buy QQQ for $83) to the market.
And at the same time, added the mutual fund proxy (RYOCX) for the QQQ to his model portfolios at the price AFTER THE DROP!
Ever since then, he has basically lied about his Nasdaq holdings -- even claiming he made money.
He gets away with it because he NEVER ADDED the other trades to his model portfolios, but added a new purchase at the market bottom.
I might add, he gets away with it because Moneytalk listeners and any new subscribers to Marketimer since April 2003, have no way of ever finding out the truth unless they find this blog (or Kirk's blogs).
.
Dan
The $11 billion loss on the sale of GM stock is the tip of the iceberg.
"Perhaps one of the least-covered elements of the auto industry restructuring has been the numerous tax advantages GM has earned as a government-owned automaker. Unlike most bankruptcies, GM was allowed to hold onto some $16b of net operating loss credits (tax-loss carry-forwards), which can be used to offset future tax bills. Typically, companies that restructure in bankruptcy lose existing carry-forwards as the price of wiping out debt, but because the government is invested in GM, it decided to allow old tax losses to flow into the new company even as debt was left behind. In the latest update on this story, The Wall Street Journal notes that some $18.9b of GM’s carry-forwards were from the old company, and that the firm has a whopping $45.4b in future tax savings. And because carry-forwards can be banked up to 20 years before they are spent, GM will have to make massive profits before it starts actually paying taxes to the federal government. "
Oh great, Jeff! I was ticked off enough about the stupid government investment loss, but now I hear "the rest of the story!" Pass the Scotch, please!
March, 2003 Marketimer, page 2, Paragraph 5, Bob Brinker said: "We continue to suggest a patient approach to the stock market. We recommend holding existing positions at this time. For subscribers holding Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares, we recommend holding for significant recovery in the shares in the next cyclical bull market."
The sad part is that we are in the SECOND cyclical bull market since he made that statement. The shares closed today at $57.88, so we need about another 50% appreciation to get back to even. Oh well, maybe in the NEXT cyclical bull market.
I might add, he gets away with it because Moneytalk listeners and any new subscribers to Marketimer since April 2003, have no way of ever finding out the truth unless they find this blog (or Kirk's blogs).
I would add that is because that disingenuous charlatan huckster piece of crap Hulbert will not perform an honest evaluation. People use Hulbert’s review as a bible and he gives his buddy Da Brink a pass.
tfb
Tfb said: "I would add that is because that disingenuous charlatan huckster piece of crap Hulbert will not perform an honest evaluation. People use Hulbert’s review as a bible and he gives his buddy Da Brink a pass."
You are absolutely correct. Hulbert gave Brinker a complete mulligan on the QQQ trades even though he has read the "Act Immediately" bulletin that instructed subscribers to use up to 50% of the 65% cash reserves raised from model portfolio equity allocations.
There are several other things that Hulbert does to promote Brinker. One of the most important is that he immediately started including the fixed income newsletter Brinker's son started selling (as Bob Brinker).
Hulbert may be a friend of the younger Bob Brinker because he also gives his newsletter a mulligan because of the dishonest way he ranks the newsletter.
I wrote to Mark Hulbert and asked why he ranked a fixed income newsletter along with equity newsletter. He wrote back and admitted that had happened, but his excuse was that a computer algorithm must have made a mistake.
That was a couple of months ago, and the fixed income letter is still in the same place in HFD. It ranks 28th in performance, but Hulbert does his risk-adjusting thing and gives him 4th place -- at the front of the column.
Nice huh? Your words fit very well...
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Jim said: "The sad part is that we are in the SECOND cyclical bull market since he made that statement. The shares closed today at $57.88, so we need about another 50% appreciation to get back to even. Oh well, maybe in the NEXT cyclical bull market."
Aha! Outstanding point that really shows how deliberate the whole contemptuous scam really was. To this day, if anyone should get on the air and ask him about QQQ's, he would refer back to his buy in 2003. He's done it before, even claiming he made money on QQQ.
As I said before, he is able to get away with these cover-ups because he deceives listeners into believing he is able to time the market.
I believe that is why he continues to work on Sunday afternoons so long past retirement age -- and even do midnight interviews on radio stations that don't carry his program.
.
Not only did yesterday's rally push the Dow to yearly closing highs, but it also caused Investor's Business Daily to change their view to "Market Resumes Uptrend".
Apple and GE reported good earnings, but the jobless claims were somewhat disappointing. Nevertheless, the futures are positive. So we have a pretty good chance to end the trading week (no trading tomorrow, Good Friday) on a high note.
One possible negative for the long term: May is coming! Yet longer term, the market still looks great...to me, anyway.
SILVER AND GOLD MARKET....Caller Chuck from Iowa said that his dad had 90% of his portfolio in silver. He wanted to know what might make the bottom fall out of the silver market.
Chuck your father made an excellent call. SLV an ETF that tracks the price of silver is up about 50% YTD. I wouldn't sell until you see a reason for the dollar to strengthen.
Who you going to trust, government "food and energy excluded" numbers, or McDonalds? Even if you don't eat at McDonalds, this inflation is affecting all of us:
McDonald's warns of higher food inflation
On Thursday April 21, 2011, 10:45 am
By Phil Wahba and Lisa Baertlein
NEW YORK/LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD - News) said higher costs for beef, bread and other items cut into its quarterly margins and that inflation for the year would be worse than expected.
The inflation comments on Thursday sent shares of the world's largest restaurant company down 2 percent, even though strong sales helped McDonald's post a first-quarter profit that beat expectations. March sales at established restaurants also rose more than expected.
"The key question now will be how they are going to raise prices to try to offset some of these food costs," Edward Jones analyst Jack Russo said.
Read more
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Hi Dan,
Thanks for the market update. Last year, the "sell in May and go away" crowd got creamed -- especially those who follow Sy Hardings, Seasons in the Sun.
Wonder what the chances are that it will happen again....
.
"Chuck your father made an excellent call. SLV an ETF that tracks the price of silver is up about 50% YTD. I wouldn't sell until you see a reason for the dollar to strengthen."
Sheer LUCK. I don't care what anybody says, having 90% of your total portfolio concentrated in ANYTHING is pure stupidity.
Brinker was right when he told him to limit his exposure.
acw
ACW,
How many times has Bob Brinker given bad advice to callers? Numerous!
Remember the lady he told to sell Google at about $100 (Jeffchristie may remember the exact amount).
Chuck's dad has made a fortune since Brinker told him he was riding a "speculative" high horse.
Anyone remember the woman he told to go to Europe and enjoy herself because he would be sure to give her plenty of warning when to sell her QQQQ's?
.
Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 4/21/2011
SILVER SURGES – GOLD AT RECORD LEVELS – Gold is trading in New York and London for a 5th day above $1500. The US Dollar continues to slide and is at its lowest level relative to the six major other currencies since August 2008.
Apmex.com
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Oh I'm not defending Brinker in any way. His record is lousy.
All I am saying is that anybody who has 90% of their portfolio invested in any one thing or company is just plain silly and/or stupid.
This time Chuck lucked out and got a winner which is unfortunate because now he will think that he is just smart.
Chuck will bet again and most likely won't be so lucky and get wiped out. They just keep playing until they do.
Chuck is a gambler, not an investor.
acw
acw,
Okay, I wouldn't have the guts to do what Chuck's father did, but I wish I would have last month.
However, buying precious metals is not the same as buying an individual stock.
Yesterday, someone tried to convince us that Brinker thinks it is -- at least in his newsletter where he has NEVER said that.
We all know he told Moneytalk listeners that GLD should be limited to 4%.
Is that called having it both ways? Sure looks like it....
.
"However, buying precious metals is not the same as buying an individual stock."
Maybe not. But a concentration is a concentration whether it's in a single stock, a single commodity, a single industry or even a single country.
Obviously, you would not "invest" as much in GLD as you would VTI.
Nobody would, except maybe for Chuck's father.
acw
acw said: "Obviously, you would not "invest" as much in GLD as you would VTI."
At one time, that might have been obvious, but I don't believe it is anymore. Can you name one thing that you believe will change and cause gold and silver to correct significantly?
.
acw,
Tell me again about Chuck's dad making a mistake?
This from Yahoo:
ProShares Ultra Silver
(NYSEArca: AGQ )
Last Trade: 340.96
Trade Time: 4:00PM EDT
Change: Up 20.40 (6.36%)
It's still settling out and may close at $341...
.
Anonymous said...
This time Chuck lucked out and got a winner which is unfortunate because now he will think that he is just smart.
-------------
Well it looks like Honey lucked out too. She talked about her investment in AGQ right here at the beehive on March 2, 2011. It was trading in the $190's then and it is about $340 today. Here is what she said.
-----------
March 2, 2011 7:30 PM
Honeybee said...
Kirk said: "Cramer said "EVERYONE should have ten to twenty percent of their portfolios in gold.""
Wow! That is very interesting. Twenty percent in gold seems VERY bullish.
Some think that silver will actually do better than gold going forward -- and that certainly has been true since September.
Some of us have even put a relatively modest amount into AGQ which is a leveraged silver ETF.
Chart compare GLD and SLV
--------------
Anonymous didn't like that call. Now honey is sitting in the catbird seat with that watermelon smile while Anonymous has egg all over his face.
-------------
March 2, 2011 10:41 PM
Anonymous said...
Leveraged ETFs like AGQ are terrible products that are pretty much only useful for day trades. They charge very high fees and almost never track properly to what you think they would over medium to long-term time spans. As long as silver moves in one direction, AGQ will track well, but because of the nature of how ETFs like AGQ get their leverage, if there is any "chop" at all, these things get screwed. The only people that get rich trading these products are the issuers of the ETF.
Jeff:
Honeybee said...
"Some of us have even put a relatively modest amount into AGQ which is a leveraged silver ETF."
Jeff, good for Chuck's father and Honeybee on a very nice trade.
Did you miss the part where Honeybee said she put a "relatively modest amount into AGQ" unlike Chuck's father who loaded up his total portfolio with silver [90%]?
As I pointed out, placing your entire portfolio into a single stock or commodity is just plain foolish, but then again if that's your cup 'o tea then good luck.
But you're a gambler not an investor.
acw
Jeffchristie,
What a great memory you have. I had forgotten that conversation. :)
Yes, it's been a wild and skeery ride. I made my original purchase of AGQ on March 23, 2011 at $174. That purchase I've held since then.
However, I made another purchase on April 15, 2011 at $284.88, after making the costly mistake of trying to wait for a pullback. (Actually, I was putting in low GTC buy orders, hoping to get picked up -- never happened.)
So the first purchase is about $10 shy of a double today. The other purchase has a nice safety cushion, so I shouldn't get shaken out even if it corrects significantly -- which it COULD do at any time.
At this point, I have no idea when I might decide to sell....
.
I think acw (ANON+ anon + Anon, et all) is jealous, and embarrassed to be left at the station after the EXPRESS TRAIN is ROARING to the next station. This clown likes riding the same elevator up and down, up and down , over and over and over.
How sad to watch him/HEr/it try to justify losers like the the Brinkers, and knock WINNERS like AGQ, You, Kirk, Apple, Google (remember the call to MoneyBalk about Google?......I know Jeff does), and Dan G, and Kirk (did I mention Kirk before?)
All winners.........except for the crybaby.
Jealous.................JEALOUS.............and it shows!
HTH, but I really don't GAF about HEr NOOOMORE.
Mr. Pig,
Maybe he has been ultra-short for the past few months. This chart would curdle anyone's blood:
Silver Rally Squeezes Bearish ETF as Volume Spikes
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Bob Brinker ALWAYS recommends Vanguard and Fidelity -- both outstanding companies, but his silence on Charles Schwab is deafening.
I am convinced that it has to do with his withdrawing $millions from Schwab when he sold his BJGroup. (I posted the quotes in the summary).
I believe in fair play, and I that Charles Schwab is equal or superior to Vanguard and/or Fidelity.
I intend to be fair and balanced at this blog, so here's some news about a Schwab upgrade:
Charles Schwab (SCHW: Nasdaq) By Ticonderoga Securities ($18.59, April 21, 2011)
We are upgrading Charles Schwab to Buy from Neutral.
We continue to feel the bias-to-rates is higher and market rates are beginning to provide a tailwind regardless of federal-fund activity. In addition, we are starting to see some encouraging signs with respect to capital.
We do not anticipate buybacks at Schwab (ticker: SCHW) anytime soon, but a potential dividend back of capital to the parent indicates improved health at the bank and likely increased investor engagement, as they are not just rushing into cash.
Barron's article
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Thanks for posting all these great posts.
You believe in fair play.
You intend to be fair and balanced at this blog.
You believe that we can disagree without being disagreeable.
You will not publish any comments that are not courteous and respectful to everyone.
What more can any NORMAL person ask for?
Happy Easter
back in 2008 BB as I remember was very bullish in spite of rising oil
prices. has he had any comment this time around??
honey-- what is your opinion?
will these current fuel prices effect the market?
Anonymous said...
"back in 2008 BB as I remember was very bullish in spite of rising oil
prices. has he had any comment this time around??
honey-- what is your opinion?
will these current fuel prices effect the market?"
This question came up several years back when prices were at similar levels. I said I didn't know what the effect would be on the overall market but I think it will be a positive for the oil stocks I own.
Here are two opposing views of gold and silver.
Pro:
From: GROUND ZERO™ of 7986
There's good reason to believe the silver rally is not going to end any time soon... the premium above NAV of the silver ETF's are only about 2.8%, which is not as high as the mark up for silver bullion itself... this means there's no panic buying, just orderly buying but just no selling, otherwise the premium would be 10% or higher, probably as high as 20%, the current 2.8% is nothing but a healthy sustainable rally... this means this rally has healthy legs and will continue to run for a great distance... the pull back, when it eventually happens, will be just as sharp, but it will only be temporary, I'll just ride it out because the rally will continue and make new highs for some time...
Not only is the silver market not entering a bubble, it is in fact coming out of a bubble, a long term depressed and reversed bubble which it has been in for many years and that the market is now correcting itself upwards... we have reverse head and shoulder patterns, why not reversed bubbles? Prices were held down and manipulated to such a low level for so long and now the bubble finally burst, so silver is now correcting itself back up to its rightful higher level and proper gold/silver ratio... yes, silver is indeed already in a correction, a correction upwards to where it should have been had it not been suppressed and manipulated for so many years by firms and dealers...GZ
Silicon Investor - Silver Prices
Con:
Seeking Alpha - Why We See Gold Going Lower Long-Term
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anonymous asked: "honey-- what is your opinion?
will these current fuel prices effect the market?"
Here's an excerpt from an article I wrote on Bob Brinker's take on how oil affects the stock market.
Of course, one needs to remember that in 2008, the stock market was dropping like a rock and Brinker was fully invested, bullish and looking for any port-in-the-storm to blame for his incompetency.
JULY 9, 2008:
"In Marketwatch article last week, Mark Hulbert wrote an article titled: Where Do Stocks Go From Here? Here is an excerpt from Hulbert's article:
"Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early July, Editor Bob Brinker reported that his stock-market timing model remains in favorable territory. However, he cautioned that oil's price constitutes a "wild card." "In the event oil prices continue to rise, consumers and the stock market will be held hostage to the cost of energy. This would provide a strong headwind against the economic recovery process. If oil prices stabilize or decline from current levels, we believe stock prices can make progress into 2009." Brinker is recommending that subscribers' stock portfolios be fully invested."
.
So now gas is $5.00 is some areas and the price of oil is higher, but Brinker never mentions that fact because he claims the economy is doing well and there is no inflation.
So far, the stock market is cooperating with him. He loves it when he gets lucky and that happens.
.
Quasimodo goes to a doctor for an annual checkup. "I think something is wrong with your back," the doctor says.
"What makes you think that?" asks Quasimodo.
"I don't know," the doctor replies. "It's just a hunch."
Quasimodo goes to a doctor ...
For the 1st time, I have to say that I am in favor of censorship and deletions.........
That joke is worse than a Sunday afternoon radio show...................
This will boggle your mind with it's prescient accuracy.
If you are Bob Brinker, how does it feel to prove what your critics say about you ABSOLUTELY TRUE?
Three years ago, pen-name, "youdidnthinkthisthrough" said:
"Here is how it works for Bob Brinker. If he recommends a stock that goes up or a fund that goes up, brag about it as much as possible and take calls about it. If the fund goes down such as TEFQX, take it off the books, and never talk about it again.
Now with the timing, the model is similar. Make a buy signal, say 1450. If it sticks and the market goes up significantly, you can brag about how great an opportunity it presented and take calls thanking you for it. If the market goes down a lot, issue a new buy signal, say in low 1300s. If that sticks, you can brag about it and get great press about it. If it goes lower, just issue a new buy signal! Remember, he did that with the QQQQin January 2001.
One more point about the business model, when Bob Brinker is just completely wrong about things, such as gold, try not to talk about it but if a caller insists that he wants to own gold, say only own it as a small percentage of your portfolio and then if gold goes up he can brag that he recommended it, even though he was bearish on it.
Last point on the business model, when Bob is wrong about secular moves in general such as being wrong about the rise in commodities, or wrong about the declining dollar, just spin it so you seem like you called it all along.
This post may be copied and posted anywhere on the Internet, on any blog or web site as the more people that find the truth about Bob Brinker's business model the better."
March 15, 2008 12:53 PM
See the original post here on this blog.
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Mr Pig said: "That joke is worse than a Sunday afternoon radio show..................."
I agree it was a real stinker. LOL! Kinda had the same flavor as Brinker's joke about The Donald's hair.
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I had enough of BB after that tirade he went on to the fair tax caller. I've given him the benefit of the doubt after being dead wrong about the 2008 market crash when my conscience told me to stop listening to him. But that temper tantrum made me rush to the radio and turn him off once and for all. His show should either be cancelled or relabled a comedy show.
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