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Sunday, May 2, 2010

Brinker's Take on Bad News Bears Before the Bear Bit and Brinker's Take Now

Posted May 2, 2010:

Lest readers get too comfortable with what Brinker said on Moneytalk yesterday (see the next post) about "discounting sources" that are making bearish predictions, take a look at what he was saying in the early innings of the greatest bear market decline since the Great Depression.

The following is from my May 31, 2008 Moneytalk summary:

February 4, 2008 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote:
"As has been the case with every correction since August of 2007, several stock market pundits are claiming that a bear market is underway. We do not believe this is the case. We expect the S&P 500 Index to work its way into record new high ground by late this year or in 2009."
. .

[Moneytalk May 31, 2008] Bob Brinker gave the following market statistics:
“The stock market had a good month in the month of May, finishing at 1400.38 in the S&P 500 Index……….a gain of about 1.48%.........and for the second consecutive month the market showed gains. The Dow finished the month at 12,638, that was up 1.3% for the week……..and the Nasdaq Composite had a big week – up 3.2% to close at 2522.”

CORRECTION LOW AND TESTS.... Brinker said: “……..And probably a lot of those people got scared out near the correction lows. The initial correction low in January, which was successfully tested in mid-March, before the market reversed and resumed its uptrend. And basically, if you were to total up all of the accomplishments of the Cassandras, that would be it – that they scared people out of the market during a stock market correction in the first quarter………..Because they have been unable to present any evidence of a recession."

Brinker said: “So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing and yet these people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find themselves out of a rising market since March. To find themselves looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite.....

.....We’ve had the market rising since mid-March. It’s rather significant when you stop to think about it. If you go back to mid-March and you take a look at the S&P 500 Index since mid-March, right now you have a total return, including cash dividends of about 10 1/2%.....................So it’s fair for you to say to the Cassandras, where is that recession, where are those millions of lost jobs, where are the two quarters of negative real GDP growth? Where’s the bear market? …………The answer is, they blew it! That is the answer, they blew it. They got caught up in their own negativity and they pronounced that it was all over, it was going to spiral downward and there was no end in sight – and they got it completely backwards. Truly amazing to see, and sad to see the people that are harmed by such unjustified negativity.”
__Bob Brinker

Steve T took this picture. Steve said: "This one is sort of unique. It was taken on on a Prairie Chicken lek. The bird on the right is a male Prairie Chicken the one of the left is a male Sharp Tail Grouse. I guess the Prairie Chicken is not happy the Sharp Tail is that close to a prospective mate. "



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