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Friday, July 10, 2009

Bob Brinker Picks Some Cherries

July 10, 2009.... Bob Brinker is cherry picking how he reports on the performance of his Model Portfolios. I like to pick cherries too.

Bob Brinker's Cherries:

In the July issue of Marketimer, Brinker quoted his 6-month (YTD) model portfolio returns (first time I've ever seen him do that) -- which of course, looks pretty good because the market rebounded over 30% between March and June. It's also very misleading.

Beginning in April, 2009, having missed the market bottom in March, Brinker began advising "buy on weakness" (for new money). He didn't point to any particular S&P 500 Index level like he has always done before. So presumably, his definition of "weakness" is open for interpretation.

Bob Brinker's Pits:

Brinker was a raging bull in October 2007 at the market high -- predicting S&P mid-1600's and saying to dump all new money in at mid-1400's. (Bob Brinker said on Moneytalk that his "Timing Model" failed to forecast the mega-bear market.) So Brinker remained fully invested throughout a 50%+ decline in the market.

And even though Brinker called several buying opportunities in 2008 and in early 2009, he entirely missed the real bottom on March 9, 2009. Matter of fact, he said in the March Marketimer that a "new bottoming process" would have to take place before the market would turn up.

On his website, Brinker did not publish his Model Portfolio yearly return in January -- for 2008 -- as he has always done before.

And here are the cherries I think need to be picked so they don't drop off and get covered up:
Bob Brinker’s 2008 one-year returns:

Model Portfolio I = down 39.7%
Model Portfolio II = down 37.4%
Model Portfolio III ("balanced") = down 23.9%
Total Market Index = down 37%

Brinker's fully-invested Model Portfolios lost this much money from the market high to market low:

Model Portfolio I: Oct 2007 ATH = $302,561 - February 28, 2009 = $143,938

Model Portfolio II: October 2007 ATH = $241,99 - February 28, 2009 = $119, 105

Model Portfolio II: October 2007 ATH = $219,263 - February 28, 2009 = $147,013

There are dog-lovers in my family, as well as cat-lovers. In this picture, the matriarch (Bailey) relaxes in the background while Annie inspects little Lucy, the newest four-footed family member.

Lucy is being trained to work as a "visiting pet" for people who are shut-ins and/or very ill. She is so tiny, she can easily sit in the palm of a hand. And she probably won't get much larger.

My daughter sent another picture of Lucy in her new jacket:

Boca Pete pointed out to me that Bob Brinker's Moneytalk has been dropped altogether from New York City's WABC. Looks like Brinker has been replaced with "real estate" talk and "local talk." That's a biggie for Brinker, but shouldn't be surprising since he talks about most everything except Wall Street.


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