Bob Brinker's 2008 year-end model portfolio performance numbers are out, but he has not published them on his website. Beginning today, when the numbers were updated for the end of the month and year, the 1 and 3-year performance numbers were not included. (as it has been done for many years). Instead, 5 years is the shortest time frame reported -- for all three portfolios.
Why did he NOT report the one year returns THIS YEAR? Did the losses incurred in all three portfolios embarrass him or worry him that much? Or is he carefully disguising his 2008 performance from his website where new potential subscribers might read it?
Who would actually subscribe to a newsletter called Marketimer if they knew going in that it had lost over 40% on it stock portfolios the year before?
[In edit: In the question above, I was referring to the losses between the October 2007 high and the November 20, 2008 lows being "over 40%." Sorry I was not more specific. I will re-write the question using the numbers for calendar year 2008:]
Brinker does include the one year numbers in the January issue of Marketimer.
However, it seems obvious that he doesn't want those numbers setting there on his website.
Who in their right mind would subscribe to a newsletter if they can go to the website and read that Portfolio I lost 39.7%; Portfolio II lost 37.4%; and the Active/passive lost 37.8% in 2008? Portfolio III (50% bonds) lost 23.9%.
[The Total Stock Market Fund and S&P 500 Index Fund lost 37%.]
Based on information that I have archived from Brinker's website over time, I was able to compute the dollar values that the portfolios lost last year. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund (VTSMX) and the Vanguard S&P 500 fund (VFINX) both lost less than Brinker's Model Portfolio I and Portfolio II. Portfolio III did better, but it is a balanced portfolio.
PORTFOLIO I DOLLAR VALUE
December 31, 2007: $283,874
December 31, 2008: $171,153
Loss for year: $112,721
Loss from October 2007 [high of $302,561]: $131,408
PORTFOLIO II DOLLAR VALUE
December 31, 2007: $229,074
December 31, 2008: $143,294
Loss for year: $85,780
Loss from October 2007 [high of $241,994]: $98,700
PORTFOLIO III DOLLAR VALUE
December 31, 2007: $213,493
December 31, 2008: $162,563
Loss for year: $50,930
Loss from October 2007 [high of $219,263]: $56,700
Some comments on this subject have been rolling. This morning Drafted wrote:
drafted said...
"...........Anyway, if what you wrote is correct, then I wonder why he has not gotten around to updating his portfolio results on his website, for the 2008 year results.
I want to see those 1, 3 and 5 year numbers ! I am sure Bob will not let us down and somehow someway put a positive spin on his portfolio results.
Happy New Years from China !
-
drafted said... WOW ! Bob is truly a scoundrel and a fraud.
He just changed his format today. I looked at his website in the morning and saw the 1, 3 and 5 year results format. He changed the format to hide his pathetic performance.
If there was any doubt left in anyone's mind about Bob's lack of integrity, this has got to put the last nail in the coffin for even his most loyal supporters- Jeffchristie sent all of the following information:
I went over to Bob Brinker's website to see if he posted his performance numbers as of 31 December 2009. It looks like he is no longer publishing his one and three year performance numbers. Below is what was there last Friday.
Friday January 2, 2009
Next Marketimer
Mailing Date: January 5th
Long-Term Marketimer Model Portfolio Performance
Portfolio Dollar Value
on 11/30/2008 Percent
Increase
Portfolio I
($20,000 value on 1-1-88) $166,651 733%
Portfolio II
($20,000 value on 1-1-88) $138,520 593%
Portfolio III
($40,000 value on 3-1-90)
(this portfolio has a 50% fixed-income allocation) $158,046 295%
Performance in Recent Years
20 years ended 12-31-2007 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 1,319%
Portfolio II: 1,045%
S&P 500 Index: 798% (VFINX)
10 years ended 12-31-2007 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 304%
Portfolio II: 211%
Portfolio III: 129% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Active/Passive: 189%
Total Stock Market Index: 83% (VTSMX)
S&P 500 Index: 76% (VFINX)
5 years ended 12-31-2007 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 122%
Portfolio II: 118%
Portfolio III: 72% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Active/Passive: 110%
Total Stock Market Index: 91% (VTSMX)
S&P 500 Index: 81% (VFINX)
3 years ended 12-31-2007 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 35%
Portfolio II: 33%
Portfolio III: 26% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Active/Passive: 33%
Total Stock Market Index: 29% (VTSMX)
S&P 500 Index: 28% (VFINX)
1 year ended 12-31-2007 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 9.2%
Portfolio II: 9%
Portfolio III: 7.9% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Active/Passive: 6.5%
Total Stock Market Index: 5.5% (VTSMX)
S&P 500 Index: 5.4% (VFINX)
Marketimer Reviews
This is the NEW FORMAT that he is now using.
5 January 2009
Long-Term Marketimer Model Portfolio Performance
Portfolio Dollar Value
on 12/31/2008 Percent
Increase
Portfolio I
($20,000 value on 1-1-88) $171,153 756%
Portfolio II
($20,000 value on 1-1-88) $143,294 616%
Portfolio III
($40,000 value on 3-1-90)
(this portfolio has a 50% fixed-income allocation) $162,563 306%
Performance in Recent Years
20 years ended 12-31-2008 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 756%
Portfolio II: 616%
S&P 500 Index: 388% (VFINX)
15 years ended 12-31-2008 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 282%
Portfolio II: 216%
Portfolio III: 157% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
S&P 500 Index: 152% (VFINX)
10 years ended 12-31-2008 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 99%
Portfolio II: 68%
Portfolio III: 63% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Active/Passive: 50%
S&P 500 Index: -14% (VFINX)
5 years ended 12-31-2008 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: -7%
Portfolio II: -5%
Portfolio III: 6% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Active/Passive: -7%
S&P 500 Index: -11% (VFINX)
This seems like an incredible amount of spinning to me. One of our friends called Brinker a scoundrel. Now I can see why he feels that way.__Jeffchristie- This is a little bridge that crosses a small creek (that runs between two small lakes) that I walk over on my morning hikes. It was recently rebuilt by some volunteer neighborhood craftsmen.
- This is looking away from the bridge toward another one:
