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Friday, October 24, 2008

Bob Brinker's Predictions

Bob Brinker's Marketimer Model Portfolios have remained fully invested for this almost 50% decline in the S&P 500 Index. His Timing Model did not warn him or his followers that a huge bear market was arriving.

What will Bob Brinker have to say about the stock market this weekend on Moneytalk? Let's look at what he is on record saying recently.

Last weekend, Bob Brinker said this about the stock market: “Another volatile week in the financial markets around the world….. Here in the United States, volatility is in at unprecedented levels recently and that continued this week.

The prior week Brinker made another excuse for his failure to predict or even recognize this bear market. His first excuse was that "it was more than I expected." His second excuse was the rise in the price of oil was "inverse" to the stock market. (Oil has also dropped over 50% since Brinker said that it was correlated to the stock market.)

October 12th, he said this: Bob Brinker said: “I want to make a comment about what we have seen recently which is unprecedented. Without question, this is the most difficult market environment I’ve seen, and my work did not forecast this bear market decline. I had no way of forecasting a global banking crisis. If I had, that would have been a huge forecast to make. And yes, it would have caused a lot of disbelief but I would have made that forecast if I had been convinced it was going to happen.

I’m not a person that believes in selling into a panic atmosphere and much prefer not to do so. My personal opinion is, it’s not the right thing to do. So recognizing that this is a situation that is going to require patience and time to resolve, that’s the way I feel about it. Obviously, we are seeing the reason that we always talk about a conservative balanced portfolio approach for those who are approaching or in retirement……..Now I believe that certainly we will come out of this over time, but there’s no question about it, it’s unprecedented.”

David Korn comments on what Brinker said:

"EC: A few choice comments here if I might. This was Bob's first acknowledgment on Moneytalk that we have even been in a bear market, and that he didn't forecast the decline. Bob was facing a lot of pressure lately with criticism being lodged against him on the Internet and elsewhere. Subscribers of mine reported that they had e-mailed Marketimer and gotten a very curt response with basically the same info -- that Bob had not forecast this bear market. Bob basically had his back against the wall today and was forced to say something and I was expecting something along these lines. However, I don't think he went near far enough -- especially given that he had previously been bashing the advisors throughout the spring who were bearish, some of whom had been guests on Moneytalk over the last year. There was no discussion of his secular bull market forecast, which in my opinion is also clearly wrong, and there was further discussion of the nature of this bear market. I will be covering both of those topics in upcoming newsletters."

DanG sent a picture of the 1949 Cadillac that he happily can afford now thanks to stock market profits. Impressive! 8)

SeaBiscuit's latest Brinker-Shave:

Grizzly knocks Bully Bob

Down to the floor

And then lets out a loud

And deafening roar

Brinker Shave!

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