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Thursday, September 4, 2008

S&P Back Into Bear Market Territory Again

Bob Brinker has never acknowledged that we are in a bear market in either Marketimer or on Moneytalk. Brinker's "timing-model" has remained in "favorable territory" throughout 2008.
Brinker has never raised any cash reserves from his model portfolios, but he keeps lowering his buy-level for new stock market money.

April 2007: S&P 500 Index "attractive for purchase" 1380

August 2007 thru January 20, 2007: "attractive for purchase" mid-1400's

February 2008: "attractive for purchase" low-1300's

August 2008: "attractive for purchase" weakness below 1240

September 2008: "attractive for purchase" low to mid 1200's

A couple of months ago, Brinker began to say that there was an "inverse correlation" between the price of oil and the stock market.
July 3, 2008 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said:
Page one:
"As we stated last month, the price of oil is the wildcard in our stock market forecast.....The Marketimer stock market timing model remains in favorable territory as we enter the month of July...."

Page three: "In Summary, our stock market forecast is subject to a stabilization or decline in oil prices....."

Some view that as Brinker's alibi to explain why he went into this bear market as a roaring bull with his model portfolio equity-allocations 100% invested, and his timing model forecasting new highs into the 1600's in 2008.

The following charts shows that XLF (financials) are more of a driver that the price of oil:

This chart clearly shows that we have dipped into bear territory for the second time this year. Kirk Lindstrom asks the question: "How many all-in buys while advising 100% in equities is one allowed?"

June 28, 2008, Moneytalk, Bob Brinker said:
“Here on Moneytalk, if you have been with us, you know we have been talking about the importance of oil prices and energy here on our Moneytalk broadcast. And we see the importance of oil prices in today’s economy --we see it with a direct correlation. We saw just this week between rising oil prices and the stock market, with the S&P 500 trading at 1278 at this juncture. And we look at what’s happened to oil prices and they spiked to a new all-time-historic-record on Thursday and Friday, closing on Friday a little above $140 per barrel."
Today, September 4th, the S&P 500 closed at 1236.83
Today, September 4th, $Oil closed at..............$107.73

SeaBiscuit, the creator of Brinker-Shave, contributes truth with humor:
"Oil below Cassandra level

And market at buy level"

If you still believe that drivel

You deserve a cool, clean

Brinker Shave!


Markets sliding down again

Nearing Bob's re-re-re-revised buy level

Easy way to bury your money

Without using a shovel!

Brinker Shave


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