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Sunday, August 31, 2008

Brinker's Predictions Like My Weatherman's

Bob Brinker reminds me of our local weather forecaster. Every day on our local channel, a nice-looking man stands in front of a picture of the United States and loudly proclaims the direction of the wind, possibilities of rain or fog, and what the temperature will be -- high and low -- for the next day.
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Based on those forecasts, many viewers will decide if they need to wear a coat or cool shirt; boots or sandals; umbrella or sun hat, to work the next day.
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However many times, the weatherman's predictions are wrong -- it will rain unexpectedly or not at all, gusty wind will kick up, or the temperature will suddenly turn hot or colder.
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So what does the weatherman do in his weather report the next day? He certainly doesn't mention how very wrong his predictions were the day before. And he wouldn't dream of even apologizing for misleading his followers. Nope, he simply starts all over again with a new set of predictions and recommendations.
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If anyone suffered as a result of believing the weatherman's wrong predictions, oh well, that was then and this is now. He simply wants to keep his job at all cost. After all, it pays big money.
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So he puts on a smiley face and voice, and does business as usual with a new forecast. If he loses a few viewers who recall his blunders, that's okay with him too. There are always more where those came from. After all, he is on public airwaves that reach a vast audience.
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Yes, Brinker has reminded me a lot of my weatherman over the past eight years, but never more than this year -- 2008....
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Here is a transcript of the ad that runs on Moneytalk quite often. It's good advice:
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"Here's another Vanguard simple truth. Start early, stay the course. Instead of "timing markets" and "chasing trends" we recommend a slow and steady investment approach when combined with Vanguard's costs at 1/6 the industry average, that can mean the more wealth you build, the more you can keep........"

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Vanguard's founder, John Bogle, said: "The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the stock market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently."_________John C. Bogle
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