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Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Bob Brinker Claims Oil and S&P "Inverse Correlation"

Tracking Bob Brinker's claim that there is an " inverse correlation between oil and the S&P 500."

Monday, August 18, 2008:

  • S&P 500 Index closed at 1278.60 -- down 1.51%
  • Oil closed at $112.87 -- down 0.77%
Tuesday, August 19, 2008:
  • S&P 500 Index closed at 1266.69 -- down 0.93%
  • Oil closed at 114.53 -- up 1.5%
This Oil price-rise is largely blamed on what is happening with the Dollar. Marketwatch: "Everyone got nervous when the dollar broke though key support."
Click the graph to see full sized chart by Kirk Lindstrom showing Oil Prices
XLF = Financial Sector Spider in blue on the graph. The market seems to "correlate" much better to what is happening with the banks than with oil. Funny Brinker fails to notice this.

Honeybee here: Kirk makes a good point about the financials. Here are some interesting excerpts from a commentary by someone who agrees with Kirk.
David of The Shark Report Blog wrote:
"According to Bob, oil is the key to the markets and not the financials- I definitely do not agree- guess I have facts on my side now as oil has fallen from $147 to $112 and the markets have barely moved off the 1216 closing low in mid July.
Bob says the following in his (August, 2008) letter:
In summary, we continue to regard oil prices as the key variable for stock prices. Lower oil prices combined with low interest rates would provide the basis for an improving economy next year. We believe such a scenario would be embraced enthusiastically by investors. We rate the market attractive for purchase on any weakness below the SPX 1240 level. Above that level we recommend a dollar cost average approach for new stock market money.

Go here to read all of David's comments (and see a recent picture of Bob Brinker) The Shark Report

Fun Stuff
My Idaho sister-in-law, who is always reminding us about the traffic we have here in Caleeforrneea, sent this picture of the traffic that was following them near Banks, Idaho. 8~)

Brinker-Shaves, written by SeaBiscuit:
Buy it at 1200/1100/900...

Never mind the knuckles turning white

Cuz one of these days/months/years...

He's eventually gonna be "right"!

Brinker Shave

The next buy level is no secret

Now that Brinker has blundered

It will be a few dozen points lower

At the next lower hundred

Brinker Shave!


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