Bob Brinker still a Peter Brimelow "Bold Bull."
.Peter Brimelow labeled the three newsletters that called the end of the post-2000 bear market in early 2003, "Bold Bulls."
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February 21, 2008, Peter Brimelow's Marketwatch article said that Brinker is still a "Bold Bull."
Regarding the three "Bold Bulls," Peter Brimelow said: “They've chopped and changed a bit, but when I last checked in, after another harrowing day, they were bullish. And, basically, wrong."
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Here are some excerpts from Brimelow’s February 21, 2008 article:
“All of them (“Bold Bulls”) seem shaken by the economy's deterioration, but still positive long-term. Brinker said recently: (Honeybee EC: Brimelow excerpted the following from Brinker's February 10, 2008 special bulletin.) "Marketimer views the establishment of a correction bottom as a process which unfolds over a given period of time. This process involves the initial establishment of a closing S&P 500 Index low, followed by a short rally, followed by a test of the area of the previously established low on reduced trading volume. The initial closing low in the current stock market correction process occurred on Jan. 22, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1310.50. The market subsequently rallied for eight days, at which point it began the process of testing the area of the Jan. 22 closing low."
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"In our view, the correction bottoming process has proceeded with a high degree of historical consistency to date. We have witnessed a decided reduction in selling pressure during the testing process, which is essential to a successful outcome. We now rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the current area of the S&P 500 Index low 1,300s, or any minor weakness that occurs below that level."
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Market timer's summary: (Honeybee EC: Brimelow excerpted this from the February 2008 issue) "As has been the case with every correction since August of 2007, several stock market pundits are claiming that a bear market is underway. We do not believe this is the case. We expect the S$P 500 Index to work its way into record new high ground by late this year or in 2009.""
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bold-bulls-bloody-unbowed/story.aspx?guid=%7BEC77C4E7%2D96CB%2D4BDC%2DAD15%2D2DC81C4ECB51%7D
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Brimelow refers to what he wrote about Bob Brinker in his November article. Here is an excerpt from Brimelow’s November Marketwatch article.
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Peter Brimelow wrote:
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“Marketimer's Bob Brinker has not been quite so successful recently, although he's ahead over the last 12 months -- 17.3% vs. the DJ Wilshire's 15.1% Marketimer doesn't seem to have bothered with a hot line at all recently. In its issue dated Nov. 5, Marketimer summarized: "We remain bullish as we move toward the winter season. We continue to rank the stock market as attractive for purchase on any weakness into the area of the S&P 500 Index mid-1400s, in the event such weakness occurs. In the absence of such weakness, we prefer a dollar-cost-average approach for investing new stock-market money. All Marketimer model portfolios remain fully invested."”
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http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/wild-ride----bold-bulls/story.aspx?guid=%7B07CF0C2B%2D5BA6%2D4E34%2DBBAF%2D442BFDEFF0E0%7D
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Honeybee here: Well friends, I checked in with Brinker in December and the first week of January, and Brinker was VERY bullish and VERY “wrong.”
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December 2007 Bob Brinker thought that the market had been "restored" to health: "The short-term correction that began in October and continued into November has served as a health-restoring pullback and has paved the way for new record highs in the S&P 500 Index in our view."
January 4, 2007, Bob Brinker wrote: “In summary, the Marketimer stock market timing model indicates that conditions are favorable for the market as we enter 2008”
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However, to Brinker's credit, he did admit to his Moneytalk audience that this intermediate-term correction was more than he "expected." That is admirable admission, but the fact is, he was completely blindsided by it and did not expect it at all.
